Currency Harvest ETF Vulnerable to Yen Rally

I wanted to revisit the Currency Harvest ETF (DBV). This is the one that goes long the high yielding G10 currency and short the low yielders.

It is currently long Aussie, Kiwi and GBP, and it is short yen Swissi and Swedish kroner.

DBV has pretty much kept up with the S&P 500 which, backtest notwithstanding, is a surprise. The short position in the kroner has been a drag and the fund has benefited mightily from yen weakness, and strength from Aussie and Kiwi.

As you can see on the chart, DBV will be vulnerable if the yen shows any strength ever again - as it did react to the threat of carry trade unwind in the first quarter.

I think anyone in DBV and heavy in Australia or any of the other high yielding destinations needs to realize they will be threatened by a yen rally. This does not mean you have to sell anything, but you do need to realize what you are vulnerable to. Every portfolio is vulnerable to something.

Comments

[phinsuntanning]

" Like Japan, the US is seeing dropping sales at home. Like Japan, the US is trying to fix everything by exporting more and more. Like Japan, the US is dropping the value of the dollar. And like Japan, this has some bad downsides". No worries, soon Zarkozi will do EUros join the competitive depreciation party. Enjoy it and short it all...except real hard assets.

[Frank Rizzo]

Watch out for the steamroller when picking up nickels in front of it.