1. I actually did point out that HPQ was acquiring Palm.
2. I did not elaborate on the potential for competition for Apple from that new combo, which you have done well.
3. All this discussion may be missing the possibilty of something (somebody) completely new in this space, as you suggest. History is replete with new Davids arising to slay established Goliaths.
4. You said: "Besides, there's enough market for all the biggies to make money." Be careful - as new technologies evolve they trend toward commodity status and profit margins in saturated markets are squeezed to pennies. This is not a market situation that would favor the current Apple business model. For that model to work, Apple must stay in front of the curve. Fanboy worshippers seem to assume that will continue to happen. As long as Apple does not fall into the same trap they may continue to have great success.
It is important to remember that a leader must earn it's stripes anew every day. Past examples of firms that did not successfully recognize that:
Well articulated high level summary. GOOG and MSFT may well be the battle of the titans when it comes to cloud computing. I use some centralized Microsoft Office functions (net accessed function rather than resident on my local machine) and find a number of very cumbersome characteristics. If MSFT can not do better in future cloud offerings they will lose business to someone who does (do better).
It is entirely possible that the future king of the cloud may not even be on our radar today. But right now GOOG and MSFT appear to be in the running to be big players.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Jeff - - -
Shah Gilani, over at Money Morning, has some of the same investment themes (seekingalpha.com/artic... ) posted this morning. I hope this boat doesn't get too crowded. Shah does emphasize commodities, which neither of us has as a primary theme. I see that as a dollar play and an improving world economy play. Weaker dollar plus stronger world economy both push commodities higher in dollars. If there are any economic disappointments, commodities will go down fast and the dollar will be stronger than many are expecting. So commodities are definitely not a buy and hold for me in 2010. I will be doing some things in that area, but risk control will be key for me.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Jeff - - -
Good discussion. I like using Vanguard Health Care (VGHCX) for long-term core holdings and use the ETFs for shorter term positions where I try more aggressive risk management. I also agree with your technology picks and the sector in general - stay long until it's not working anymore. For short-term trading I like the leveraged QQQ (QLD).
I agree that energy is problematic, as are other materials stocks, including precious metals. I think they are better for renting (trading) than owning (long-term positions).
The broad ETFs are better for a core emerging market position, but I like EWZ and FXI for shorter term holdings with more aggressive risk management.
I am hesitant in the cyclicals because I am hesitant on the economy.
Overall, you are thinking along the same lines as I am. That is scary.
Cramer's Mad Money - When the Facts Change...(10/23/09) [View article]
Maxe - - -
Perhaps Cramer is riding on the coattails of Doug Kass, another Real Money contributor who called for a market bottom within three days on March 2. He missed by two days, but still stood by the call on March 6. www.thestreet.com/stor...
Doug reiterated his position on March 9 and before the market opened on March 10. www.thestreet.com/stor...
Doug continued to make bullish calls until late July, when he started to counsel caution. www.thestreet.com/stor...
His bearishness has increased since, as he has been recommending a mix of long and short positions.
I have not followed Doug historically, to my regret. I will pay attention in the future.
On Oct 25 09:35 AM Maxe Paul wrote:
> Surely this article is a joke? > > Cramer called the bottom now? > > Cramer called many false bottoms, (my favourite was the one on bear > Stearns at $50!) and never managed to call a top ever? > > I am the only person who called the exact bottom, so far. > > Here is my comment two weeks before the bottom seekingalpha.com/autho... > > > Here is my prediction on March 3 seekingalpha.com/autho... > > > Seriously, show me the transcript where Cramer "called the bottom"? > > > Cramer, you are a complete stooge.....again!
Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Will Beat Cool [View article]
I remember the Xerox prototype system Lisa in the early 1980's. I was at IBM and we thought it was clever. Microsoft and Apple not only thought it was clever but they had far better business vision than IBM in this area and the rest is history.
I agree with the cheap chemistry proposition. I have positions in ABAT and CBAT.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
tom 1234 - - -
Why is Apple down? Try valuation. Expected 2008 earnings are $5.20; 5 year expected annual growth rate 24%; high volatility (Beta = 2.88). If I assign 5% annual growth starting in six years and continuing forever, fair value today for AAPL is $44.
By the way, I own Apple. However, I do put short position hedges on that holding at every pullback. The potential for Apple to double keeps me an owner. The potential for Apple to go down 50-75% keeps me guarded.
Apple and the Major Indexes: A Technical View [View article]
Marcos - - -
Fundamentals (income, sales, profits, etc) tell you what to consider buying and selling and technical analysis can tell you when to buy or sell and when to take no action. Not to use all tools is like to plot a three dimensional equation (x,y,z) on a one dimensional chart (x-axis only).
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
I think Jersey has overstated the potential for disaster from the coming election. I think there is enough intelligence in the spheres of influence for all three candidates to prevent disaster. Just as I think campaign posturing by McCain which, if implemented would continue to trash the dollar, will not be significantly implemented if he is elected, I don't expect growth destroying tax changes and trade policies from either Obama or Clinton if one of them is elected. Much of campaign rhetoric is simply "trash talk".
Can Google Swallow Apple? [View article]
Good comment.
Here are some additional clarifications:
1. I actually did point out that HPQ was acquiring Palm.
2. I did not elaborate on the potential for competition for Apple from that new combo, which you have done well.
3. All this discussion may be missing the possibilty of something (somebody) completely new in this space, as you suggest. History is replete with new Davids arising to slay established Goliaths.
4. You said: "Besides, there's enough market for all the biggies to make money." Be careful - as new technologies evolve they trend toward commodity status and profit margins in saturated markets are squeezed to pennies. This is not a market situation that would favor the current Apple business model. For that model to work, Apple must stay in front of the curve. Fanboy worshippers seem to assume that will continue to happen. As long as Apple does not fall into the same trap they may continue to have great success.
It is important to remember that a leader must earn it's stripes anew every day. Past examples of firms that did not successfully recognize that:
1. Xerox
2. Eastman Kodak
3. IBM 1988-94
4. Dell
There are many more examples - I'll stop here.
Thanks again for a well developed comment.
Can Google Swallow Apple? [View article]
Well articulated high level summary. GOOG and MSFT may well be the battle of the titans when it comes to cloud computing. I use some centralized Microsoft Office functions (net accessed function rather than resident on my local machine) and find a number of very cumbersome characteristics. If MSFT can not do better in future cloud offerings they will lose business to someone who does (do better).
It is entirely possible that the future king of the cloud may not even be on our radar today. But right now GOOG and MSFT appear to be in the running to be big players.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Shah Gilani, over at Money Morning, has some of the same investment themes (seekingalpha.com/artic... ) posted this morning. I hope this boat doesn't get too crowded. Shah does emphasize commodities, which neither of us has as a primary theme. I see that as a dollar play and an improving world economy play. Weaker dollar plus stronger world economy both push commodities higher in dollars. If there are any economic disappointments, commodities will go down fast and the dollar will be stronger than many are expecting. So commodities are definitely not a buy and hold for me in 2010. I will be doing some things in that area, but risk control will be key for me.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Good discussion. I like using Vanguard Health Care (VGHCX) for long-term core holdings and use the ETFs for shorter term positions where I try more aggressive risk management. I also agree with your technology picks and the sector in general - stay long until it's not working anymore. For short-term trading I like the leveraged QQQ (QLD).
I agree that energy is problematic, as are other materials stocks, including precious metals. I think they are better for renting (trading) than owning (long-term positions).
The broad ETFs are better for a core emerging market position, but I like EWZ and FXI for shorter term holdings with more aggressive risk management.
I am hesitant in the cyclicals because I am hesitant on the economy.
Overall, you are thinking along the same lines as I am. That is scary.
Cramer's Mad Money - When the Facts Change...(10/23/09) [View article]
Perhaps Cramer is riding on the coattails of Doug Kass, another Real Money contributor who called for a market bottom within three days on March 2. He missed by two days, but still stood by the call on March 6. www.thestreet.com/stor...
Doug reiterated his position on March 9 and before the market opened on March 10. www.thestreet.com/stor...
Again after the market closed on March 10, www.thestreet.com/stor...
Doug continued to make bullish calls until late July, when he started to counsel caution. www.thestreet.com/stor...
His bearishness has increased since, as he has been recommending a mix of long and short positions.
I have not followed Doug historically, to my regret. I will pay attention in the future.
On Oct 25 09:35 AM Maxe Paul wrote:
> Surely this article is a joke?
>
> Cramer called the bottom now?
>
> Cramer called many false bottoms, (my favourite was the one on bear
> Stearns at $50!) and never managed to call a top ever?
>
> I am the only person who called the exact bottom, so far.
>
> Here is my comment two weeks before the bottom seekingalpha.com/autho...
>
>
> Here is my prediction on March 3 seekingalpha.com/autho...
>
>
> Seriously, show me the transcript where Cramer "called the bottom"?
>
>
> Cramer, you are a complete stooge.....again!
Five Predictions for This Market [View article]
Nice comment. But I have to ask: Have you factored in seasonality factors in making your price projections?
Five Predictions for This Market [View article]
You wrote: "Your left-winger, government reliant friends were the ones applying for bad ARM's they could not afford."
Do you have information about the political demographics of fraudulent mortgage applications?
Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Will Beat Cool [View article]
I agree with the cheap chemistry proposition. I have positions in ABAT and CBAT.
What To Look For Next in This Market [View article]
Outstanding observation. Energy is the future of our economy.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Why is Apple down? Try valuation. Expected 2008 earnings are $5.20; 5 year expected annual growth rate 24%; high volatility (Beta = 2.88). If I assign 5% annual growth starting in six years and continuing forever, fair value today for AAPL is $44.
By the way, I own Apple. However, I do put short position hedges on that holding at every pullback. The potential for Apple to double keeps me an owner. The potential for Apple to go down 50-75% keeps me guarded.
Apple and the Major Indexes: A Technical View [View article]
Fundamentals (income, sales, profits, etc) tell you what to consider buying and selling and technical analysis can tell you when to buy or sell and when to take no action. Not to use all tools is like to plot a three dimensional equation (x,y,z) on a one dimensional chart (x-axis only).
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Much of campaign rhetoric is simply "trash talk".