Clean Energy Shopping List: 5 Stocks with Technology to Improve Grid Reliability [View article]
Tom - - -
Itron has two European competitors who have footholds in the US and Canadian utility market. These are Landis + Gyr (Switzerland) and Elster (Germany). Both are privately held. I like Itron's prospects, but keeping track of how they fare against these two competitors will be important. At the present time, I am aware that Landis + Gyr is a supplier for TXU Energy and Landis + Gyr is doing business with Toronto Hydroelectric.
DOE Energy Storage Subsidies Are Both Heavenly Grants and Hellish Loans [View article]
John - - -
I find Knowsitsurelock's comment very hard to read, but my best parsing of it finds it to be complimentary. You should read it again. (Maybe I'm wrong - if so please disregard or reprimand me for my poor reading comprehension.)
I have reviewed the Hyperion Power Generation information. Here's a summary:
1. The will make portable nuclear power generation units.
2. They expect to have a "couple of delivery dates available" in 2013.
3. They are privately funded (that's why they are not on your radar, John).
4. Units are cylindrical, about 1.5 meters in diameter and 3 meters tall.
5. Units are ... "Out of sight and safe from nefarious threats, Hyperion power modules are buried far underground and guarded by a security detail."
6. Units cost $25,000,000 to $30,000,000.
7. Units produce 25MW for 5 years before they are "recharged" at the factory. That translates to $0.57 to $0.69 per kwh. This is 4-7 times what most in the U.S. pay for electricity. (I pay $0.10 in North Carolina.) I don't know how much the Hyperion cost for the first five years is increased by delivery, installation and "secuirty detail" costs. Also, there is no information given by Hyperion on how much the cost might be reduced in five year periods after the first (recharged periods).
Thanks for the list and comments. I agree with your decision to sel CZZ. Ethanol may offer some trading opportunities, but, long term, doesn't make economic sense to me, even the cheapr sugar cane ethanol from Brazil.
Alternative Energy Storage Stocks: Review and Outlook [View article]
John Petersen - - -
This update is terrific. I hope you keep monitoring the vital signs of this vital developing area thoughout 2009 and beyond.
DiggerUK - - - Thanks for the "open letter". I thought that was the case but I do appreciate the confirmation.
billp37 - - -
Useful information about a solarthermal application. Thanks.
To all - - -
I have been daydreaming about a hybrid photovoltaic-thermal generating system. It is a generating facility that levels electrical production across 24 hours and multiple days by using PV when the sun shines and stores the thermal energy for generation in other hours. The idea is based on the waste of thermal energy when doing PV and the waste of PV energy when collecting thermal energy.
Confession: I don't have the foggiest idea about what such a configuration might look like.
Questions:
1. Is this, like many day dreams, a fantasy?
2. Is there any merit to having an integrated facility or would seperate thermal and PV generators make more sense?
Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance [View article]
John - - -
I really anticpated your answer because I have read much of what you have written. So let me suggest Plan B: Can you keep pushing this question as a challenge and maybe some reader will seize the challenge and add to the discussion.
I recognize that the questions I ask, if thoroughly addressed, would be worthy of a Ph.D. thesis in Economics or Materials Science.
On Dec 26 03:02 PM John Petersen wrote:
> John, it's one thing for me to talk about what the finished products > costs are and another entirely to estimate what they might be. That > kind of work requires detailed manufacturing expertise that I simply > don't have. In a perfect world, the various manufacturers would publish > white papers about their relative costs and expected future economies. > But it's hard enough right now trying to get to reliable costs per > kWh. This baby is changing fast and I'm sure the rules we have today > won't apply forever. So the best I can do is try to keep on top of > developments and talk about what is, rather than what might be.
Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance [View article]
John Petersen - - -
At the risk of putting the cart before the horse (this suggestion may be too early to be anything more than a temporary stab at the subject), do you think that an analysis attempting to separate different cost effects for emerging generation and storage technologies could be done? Let me make a list to clarify what I mean by different types of estimated cost factors:
1. Scalable costs that will come down with volume production and usage.
2. Fixed costs that have no economy of scale.
3. Costs that might have reverse economy of scale (higher raw material costs based on scarcity facing higher demand, for example).
4. Costs that face the risk of lowered recoverability through obsolescence (by a leap-frogging technology change).
I realize that what I am asking is monumental if tackled comprehensively, but you have been effectively against the monument. Can you keep trying to focus on these issues in manageable pieces as you continue your work?
My comments here are prompted by the comment stream discussion of uranium availability (Vienna and billp37) and use of thorium (kewlhand) and the mention of Li-ion-phosphate technology (Road Runner). I am aware of this technology which Valence (VLNC) is working on. There are other alternative lithium based systems from Altair Nano (ALTI) and A123 Systems (privately held). The mention of EEstor (nickgogert) raises the question: how does this relate to the BoostCap technology from Maxwell Technology (MXWL)?
John, if you continue your sofar excellent efforts, the parameters of energy storage technology and the intersection with new generation technologies can only become clearer. Thanks for doing what you are doing.
Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance [View article]
As John Petersen states in the title, its all about cost vs. performance. I would like to see an analysis of cost for expanding nuclear (construction and maintenance, including uranium mining and processing) vs. other alternatives. What projections can be made for the future availability and cost of uranium? I hate to cite Vienna because of the language chosen in the comment, but it is claimed that uranium will be exhausted in 50 years. Is that known reserves? What are the possibilities of further reserves being discovered? Is this like peak oil, where we really don't know when the peak will occur, but are getting a better idea of peak cheap oil.
John Petersen continuously tries to assess the future cost profiles of emerging technologies, but these are merely estimates ("guesstimates"). I think he has made it clear he does not have a crystal ball regarding such things as technology evolution in battery chemistries and potential economies of scale for a wide variety of still rather primitive commercializations of solar (thermal and photovoltaic), wind, geothermal, tidal and wave hydropower, etc.
Discussion of the entire future energy paradigm is still proceding on the level of hunches. John Petersen is providing an excellent service in summarizing the rationale of various efforts underway, but, as he has made clear in his excellent series of articles, this entire area is still in gestation - it hasn't even reached infancy, in my opinion.
John, I hope you have the patience to stay with this subject and keep your perspectives regarding developments in the energy storage area in front of us for some time to come.
The Heart of Cleantech Sells at 50% Discount to the Broader Market [View article]
John - - -
Steve Milunovich's inflection point chart is interesting. I have had this sequence on a scrap of paper for some time. It has occurred to me that there may be some useful lessons in how investment markets have responded to these historic "stimuli". Although I haven't developed a thorough analysis as yet, the following list shows some interesting relationships.
Economic Revolution 1: Railroads, 1830's Contemporary Crashes, 1847-1857, rolling through Europe to U.S. Major attribution - Railroads (RR) Economic Revolution 2: Steel & Electricity, 1870's Contemporary Crashes, 1873, Europe, U.S. Major attribution - RR, Real Estate (RE) Economic Revolution 3: Oil & Mass Production, early 1900's Comtemporary Crashes, (a) 1907, U.S. and (b)1929, U.S. Major attribution - (a) RR, Coffee and (b)Stocks, RE Economic Revolution 4: Technology, 1970's Contemporary Crashes, (a) 1974, World and (b) 2000-2002, U.S. Major attribution - (a) Stocks, RE and (b) Tech Economic Revolution 5: New Energy, early 2000's Contemporary Crashes, 2008-?, World Major attribution - Credit Bubble (Banking), RE
Interesting points:
1. There was a market crash early in all revolutions (except the first) that were not directly related to the revolution.
2. Crashes associated with a specific economic revolution occurred later in that revolution process, and sometimes after the start of the next revolution.
3. One revolution (railroads) had a legacy of repeated bubbles and crashes
This means that investment strategies for the seemingly undervalued storage sector must look forward to a potential bubble down the road.
One additional note: There has been a credit cycle (banking)involvement in all economic (and stock market) cycles, but often secondary to another prime mover, especially in the biggest crashes. What is different in 2008 is the real estate cycle effect on the economic cycle has been overshadowed by collapse of a mountain of highly leveraged debt derivatives.
The Heart of Cleantech Sells at 50% Discount to the Broader Market [View article]
John - - -
I like the forward prospects for CBAK, especially since the risk that their rapid facility investment is a temporary overbuild is mitigated by a Chinese government financial backstop.
Disclosure: I have started buying CBAK during the past five months and have owned ABAT for almost a year.
How Will Temporary Decline in Oil Prices Impact Energy Sector? [View article]
John - - -
Good analysis. I much appreciate your storage analysis because I also believe this will be a huge long-term growth area. I also believe we have little chance of picking ultimate technologies at this point, and, therefore, future Microsofts and Intels of energy storage. I have come to the same conclusion about near-term prospects and have taken significant (for me) long positions in ABAT and CBAK. , both significantly under water at present. I will probably buy more.
Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [View article]
Energy storage technology is at the very core of the future of transportation. It is also important, allbeit less critically, for developing electrical generation technology in general. Those who make the right investment bets here may well outperform the investment returns of the solar, wind, biofuel and distribution system investors.
Clean Energy Shopping List: 5 Stocks with Technology to Improve Grid Reliability [View article]
Itron has two European competitors who have footholds in the US and Canadian utility market. These are Landis + Gyr (Switzerland) and Elster (Germany). Both are privately held. I like Itron's prospects, but keeping track of how they fare against these two competitors will be important. At the present time, I am aware that Landis + Gyr is a supplier for TXU Energy and Landis + Gyr is doing business with Toronto Hydroelectric.
DOE Energy Storage Subsidies Are Both Heavenly Grants and Hellish Loans [View article]
I find Knowsitsurelock's comment very hard to read, but my best parsing of it finds it to be complimentary. You should read it again.
(Maybe I'm wrong - if so please disregard or reprimand me for my poor reading comprehension.)
Long Live the Cleantech Revolution [View article]
I have reviewed the Hyperion Power Generation information. Here's a summary:
1. The will make portable nuclear power generation units.
2. They expect to have a "couple of delivery dates available" in 2013.
3. They are privately funded (that's why they are not on your radar, John).
4. Units are cylindrical, about 1.5 meters in diameter and 3 meters tall.
5. Units are ... "Out of sight and safe from nefarious threats, Hyperion power modules are buried far underground and guarded by a security detail."
6. Units cost $25,000,000 to $30,000,000.
7. Units produce 25MW for 5 years before they are "recharged" at the factory. That translates to $0.57 to $0.69 per kwh. This is 4-7 times what most in the U.S. pay for electricity. (I pay $0.10 in North Carolina.) I don't know how much the Hyperion cost for the first five years is increased by delivery, installation and "secuirty detail" costs. Also, there is no information given by Hyperion on how much the cost might be reduced in five year periods after the first (recharged periods).
The web site is www.hyperionpowergener...
10 Green Energy Gambles for '09 [View article]
Alternative Energy Storage Stocks: Review and Outlook [View article]
This update is terrific. I hope you keep monitoring the vital signs of this vital developing area thoughout 2009 and beyond.
DiggerUK - - - Thanks for the "open letter". I thought that was the case but I do appreciate the confirmation.
billp37 - - -
Useful information about a solarthermal application. Thanks.
To all - - -
I have been daydreaming about a hybrid photovoltaic-thermal generating system. It is a generating facility that levels electrical production across 24 hours and multiple days by using PV when the sun shines and stores the thermal energy for generation in other hours. The idea is based on the waste of thermal energy when doing PV and the waste of PV energy when collecting thermal energy.
Confession: I don't have the foggiest idea about what such a configuration might look like.
Questions:
1. Is this, like many day dreams, a fantasy?
2. Is there any merit to having an integrated facility or would seperate thermal and PV generators make more sense?
Enough dislosure about my daydreams.
Happy New Year to all.
Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance [View article]
I really anticpated your answer because I have read much of what you have written. So let me suggest Plan B: Can you keep pushing this question as a challenge and maybe some reader will seize the challenge and add to the discussion.
I recognize that the questions I ask, if thoroughly addressed, would be worthy of a Ph.D. thesis in Economics or Materials Science.
On Dec 26 03:02 PM John Petersen wrote:
> John, it's one thing for me to talk about what the finished products
> costs are and another entirely to estimate what they might be. That
> kind of work requires detailed manufacturing expertise that I simply
> don't have. In a perfect world, the various manufacturers would publish
> white papers about their relative costs and expected future economies.
> But it's hard enough right now trying to get to reliable costs per
> kWh. This baby is changing fast and I'm sure the rules we have today
> won't apply forever. So the best I can do is try to keep on top of
> developments and talk about what is, rather than what might be.
Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance [View article]
I wrote "...you have been effectively against the monument."
Insert the word "pushing": ...you have been PUSHING effectively against the monument.
Entirely different implication. Sorry.
Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance [View article]
At the risk of putting the cart before the horse (this suggestion may be too early to be anything more than a temporary stab at the subject), do you think that an analysis attempting to separate different cost effects for emerging generation and storage technologies could be done? Let me make a list to clarify what I mean by different types of estimated cost factors:
1. Scalable costs that will come down with volume production and usage.
2. Fixed costs that have no economy of scale.
3. Costs that might have reverse economy of scale (higher raw material costs based on scarcity facing higher demand, for example).
4. Costs that face the risk of lowered recoverability through obsolescence (by a leap-frogging technology change).
I realize that what I am asking is monumental if tackled comprehensively, but you have been effectively against the monument. Can you keep trying to focus on these issues in manageable pieces as you continue your work?
My comments here are prompted by the comment stream discussion of uranium availability (Vienna and billp37) and use of thorium (kewlhand) and the mention of Li-ion-phosphate technology (Road Runner). I am aware of this technology which Valence (VLNC) is working on. There are other alternative lithium based systems from Altair Nano (ALTI) and A123 Systems (privately held). The mention of EEstor (nickgogert) raises the question: how does this relate to the BoostCap technology from Maxwell Technology (MXWL)?
John, if you continue your sofar excellent efforts, the parameters of energy storage technology and the intersection with new generation technologies can only become clearer. Thanks for doing what you are doing.
Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance [View article]
John Petersen continuously tries to assess the future cost profiles of emerging technologies, but these are merely estimates ("guesstimates"). I think he has made it clear he does not have a crystal ball regarding such things as technology evolution in battery chemistries and potential economies of scale for a wide variety of still rather primitive commercializations of solar (thermal and photovoltaic), wind, geothermal, tidal and wave hydropower, etc.
Discussion of the entire future energy paradigm is still proceding on the level of hunches. John Petersen is providing an excellent service in summarizing the rationale of various efforts underway, but, as he has made clear in his excellent series of articles, this entire area is still in gestation - it hasn't even reached infancy, in my opinion.
John, I hope you have the patience to stay with this subject and keep your perspectives regarding developments in the energy storage area in front of us for some time to come.
The Heart of Cleantech Sells at 50% Discount to the Broader Market [View article]
Steve Milunovich's inflection point chart is interesting. I have had this sequence on a scrap of paper for some time. It has occurred to me that there may be some useful lessons in how investment markets have responded to these historic "stimuli". Although I haven't developed a thorough analysis as yet, the following list shows some interesting relationships.
Economic Revolution 1: Railroads, 1830's
Contemporary Crashes, 1847-1857, rolling through Europe to U.S.
Major attribution - Railroads (RR)
Economic Revolution 2: Steel & Electricity, 1870's
Contemporary Crashes, 1873, Europe, U.S.
Major attribution - RR, Real Estate (RE)
Economic Revolution 3: Oil & Mass Production, early 1900's
Comtemporary Crashes, (a) 1907, U.S. and (b)1929, U.S.
Major attribution - (a) RR, Coffee and (b)Stocks, RE
Economic Revolution 4: Technology, 1970's
Contemporary Crashes, (a) 1974, World and (b) 2000-2002, U.S.
Major attribution - (a) Stocks, RE and (b) Tech
Economic Revolution 5: New Energy, early 2000's
Contemporary Crashes, 2008-?, World
Major attribution - Credit Bubble (Banking), RE
Interesting points:
1. There was a market crash early in all revolutions (except the first) that were not directly related to the revolution.
2. Crashes associated with a specific economic revolution occurred later in that revolution process, and sometimes after the start of the next revolution.
3. One revolution (railroads) had a legacy of repeated bubbles and crashes
This means that investment strategies for the seemingly undervalued storage sector must look forward to a potential bubble down the road.
One additional note: There has been a credit cycle (banking)involvement in all economic (and stock market) cycles, but often secondary to another prime mover, especially in the biggest crashes. What is different in 2008 is the real estate cycle effect on the economic cycle has been overshadowed by collapse of a mountain of highly leveraged debt derivatives.
The Heart of Cleantech Sells at 50% Discount to the Broader Market [View article]
I like the forward prospects for CBAK, especially since the risk that their rapid facility investment is a temporary overbuild is mitigated by a Chinese government financial backstop.
Disclosure: I have started buying CBAK during the past five months and have owned ABAT for almost a year.
How Will Temporary Decline in Oil Prices Impact Energy Sector? [View article]
Good analysis. I much appreciate your storage analysis because I also believe this will be a huge long-term growth area. I also believe we have little chance of picking ultimate technologies at this point, and, therefore, future Microsofts and Intels of energy storage. I have come to the same conclusion about near-term prospects and have taken significant (for me) long positions in ABAT and CBAK. , both significantly under water at present. I will probably buy more.
Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [View article]
The big problem? Finding the right investments.
Lithium-Ion Batteries and Centerfolds: The Final Chapter [View article]