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John Lounsbury

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  • The FSB's Big, Bad 30 [View article]
    Gary and Mark - - -

    The thinking seems to be that C is only 40% owned by the U.S. government and therefore still poses a risk because it is not under sovereign control. AIG is 89% government owned and is therefore no risk unless the U.S. fails.

    In my articles during the past summer I considered both C and AIG failed concerns and therefore under government receivership. The case of C can still be debated; with AIG there is no debate.
    Nov 30 03:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Manipulation by the 'Big Boys'? [View article]
    Reggie - - -

    Very timely article. I have a few thoughts to add:

    1. If program trading is up to 40% of the volume and these "hedge fund/banks" are making big profits in a sideways market, where does that leave the mutual fund investors, the retail traders/investors, the pension funds, etc? How about losing?
    2. I have reported elsewhere that volumes are very low on up days coming off dips, indicating weak buying interest.
    3. Volume trend lines are down for the past two months, indicating investor apathy.
    4. A number of price charts have pulled back to moving average lines recently penetrated with price going up. Failure to stay above these moving averages will be very bearish.

    I think the next two weeks are crunch time and, Reggie, your opening statement, "why stock prices have diverged so far, and so fast from the underlying fundamentals" will be answered by 'they are now converging' as prices go down.

    In a Real Money article a couple of weeks ago, I gave a better than 50% chance for the S&P 500 to pull back to the 770-800 region in the middle of the summer and a 25% chance of retesting the March 9 lows this fall. With the additinal developments since then, I think the odds have improved for these declines.

    Keep up the good work. You look at data that I don't track, so I look forward to everything you put out.
    Jul 2 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Company Default Risk [View article]
    How were these prices determined? I assume there is a record of transactions somewhere? If so, what volume of transactions have taken place recently and on what dates?
    Jan 10 11:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    My Boo Boo - I reversed the descriptions of bankruptcy law chapters.

    Chapter 7 is dissolution

    Chapter 11 is reorganization

    I'm surprised nobody jumped on this error. Either (1) nobody read the comment or (2) nobody understood that it was an error or (3) nobody cares.


    On Dec 04 10:38 AM jlounsbury59 wrote:

    > Bankruptcy Question - - -
    >
    > Reorganization bankruptcy (Chapter 7) usually wipes out common stock.
    > The exact situation depends on the final court decree. It is possible
    > for some sort of equity to remain, but that is very uncommon. <br/>
    >
    > Dissolution bankruptcy (Chapter 11) always discards all equity. Debt
    > is settled by distribution and liquidation of assets.
    Dec 4 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Bankruptcy Question - - -

    Reorganization bankruptcy (Chapter 7) usually wipes out common stock. The exact situation depends on the final court decree. It is possible for some sort of equity to remain, but that is very uncommon.

    Dissolution bankruptcy (Chapter 11) always discards all equity. Debt is settled by distribution and liquidation of assets.
    Dec 4 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Another vote for "Under the Radar News".
    Jun 25 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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