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John Lounsbury

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  • Rail Traffic Increase: A Good Gauge of Economic Expansion [View article]
    bbro,econdoc - - -

    I take an inference from the faster improvement of intermodal (finished goods) than carloads (raw materials). To me this infers that mercantile activity is growing faster than production activity (which would consume raw materials).

    This inference is compatible with recent trends in the GDP numbers which show imports again growing faster than exports. Also container counts at U.S. ports have been increasing (finished goods).
    Jan 12 10:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
    GCouts - - -

    I have two problems with your comment:

    1. Wildebeest's charts show data through late April. Did you miss the blue lines?

    2. The discussion you copied from the AAR report does not address the questions Wildebeest raised. AAR discusses year-over-year changes only. Wildebeest discusses week-to-week changes in 2010 only.

    Perhaps you should read both reports again?
    May 17 11:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
    Wildebeest - - -

    Thanks for the reply. Your proposal sounds reasonable. If no one else has done the analysis of the correlations between carloads and container shipments I guess it will be left undone. I am curious about that but not compelled to push other work aside to go after it myself.
    May 17 09:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
    Wildebeest - - -

    Good summary.

    I have wondered about the relative strength of intermodal units over carload units. Have you seen anyone discuss the reason(s) for this? One possibility is that production is being completed from an inventory of stored raw materials and commodities. If that is the reason I can see two undesirable related possibilities:

    * Production profits will be reduced in the future when the raw inventory is replenished.
    * Production businesses have limited confidence in economic recovery and have selected an inventory draw down rather than restocking for increased production.

    Just curious if you have seen anyone discuss this.
    May 17 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
    Wildebeest and phoneranger - - -

    I apologize for interrupting your debate. I guess in this case I have a syntax reading problem, not a writing problem.

    This is what can happen when I go back and just look at what has been posted since my last visit and don't recheck the context.
    Mar 11 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
    Wildebeest - - -

    I have looked at what I wrote and found this:

    <<However, when coal is excluded, carloads of all other commodities are clearly more than 2009.>>

    What I intended that to mean was that the first two months of 2010 are clearly more than for 2009. If you inferred something else from my statement then I am guilty of not writing clear syntax.

    If you were looking at some other statement, please let me know.
    Mar 11 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic: 2010 Is Looking a Lot Like 2009 [View article]
    Maya - - -

    I have several clients that recently bought C in the $3.20 to $3.30 range. I am now recommending they sell half and put a 15% trailing stop loss on the remainder. If C goes to $5, I am recommending the trailing stop be increased to 20%.
    Mar 11 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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