John Lounsbury
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Case-Shiller Shows a Further Decline in U.S. Housing Prices [View article]
Good update. I am worried that we may overshoot projections for housing on the downside if the Fed can not get control of the yield curve. If it continues, the rapid rise of rates on the long end could throw a fit of paralysis into the mortgage market.
Pending Home Sales Index Is Down 6.4% [View article]
For new construction, this would be looking forward approximately six months or so to closings. For completed construction and existing home sales, this would be looking forward approximately 30-45 days to closings. Since less than 10% of current sales are new construction (and that includes completed new construction), the average of the forward look would be less than 1 1/2 months.
This is much closer to the customary lead time for something that would be considered a coincident indicator.