Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Jaysan - - -
Thanks. I was not aware of RNNM. I will do some research.
The role of hydrogen in global energy systems is greatly under appreciated. It has many advantages over batteries and more complex synthetic fuel chemicals for energy storage. The increasing use of alternative energy from wind and solar brings the need for energy storage to the fore.
Auto Sales: U.S. and China Driving in Different Directions [View article]
Thanks dzzkfn56 - - -
I can accept your 12.2 million for 2010. The JD Powers estimate is a couple of months old.
The JD powers estimate for 2011 (from the article and plotted in the graph) is 13.2 million which is slightly higher than your estimate.
The wild card in 2011, for both China and U.S. light vehicle sales, is the cost of gasoline. If oil continues the recent trajectory, gasoline in the U.S. will go near or over $4 a gallon. New vehicle purchases probably will be suppressed in that circumstance.
I can justify bailouts when the "bailer" gets something from the "bailee". With financial institutions the concessions should include restructuring, as in a bankruptcy, with capital and debt positions taking haircuts or even liquidation when necessary.
That has not happened so the past and continuing bailout mentality is not on my acceptable list. We have gotten to this situation with wealth concentration by oligarchy and the bailouts are simply enabling the further transfer of wealth from the bulk of the citizenry to the oligarchy.
The problem is structural. The problem is "oligarchical". The problem is growing bigger with each passing day.
William Jennings Bryan could not gain traction with his populism approach to the problem 110+ years ago, but, with the McKinley assassination, Teddy Roosevelt entered the presidency through the back door and addressed the problem of oligarchy (aka trusts) of that previous era.
The broken political system in the U.S. is arguing debt reduction facing the crowd while getting bigger shovels to work to load the money into the oligarchy money wagons hidden behind the speakers' platform.
I repeat your final paragraph which is the most important thing you wrote:
<<<All of which means that sovereign debt is going to continue to go up rather than down: at heart, bailouts are a way of moving indebtedness from the bailed-out entity to the government doing the bailing out. With yet another debt reduction task force reporting today, it might be time to start asking how and whether crisis-related bailouts can ever be accounted for in long-term sovereign debt planning.>>
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Daniel - - -
I think that energy storage technology (batteries included) will be a rapidly developing area in the coming decade. I recommend the articles (on Seeking Alpha) by John Petersen for great discussions of battery technology. The comment streams have attracted some world class experts on the subject, as well. (seekingalpha.com/autho... )
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Daniel - - -
Thanks for your comment. I agree that the cost calculations are still open ended. The key element regarding electrical power generation for the production of hydrogen is that the grid supply issues of production as consumed is removed for hydrogen production. The grid requires production when there is demand. Hydrogen can be produced when power is available.
You can think of hydrogen as a storage system for electricity. That is why pairing production with wind turbines is an attractive technology. Wind is cheaper than nuclear and is within 10% or so of the cost of burning coal from most estimates I have found. Wind may be cheaper than coal if carbon dioxide sequestering and rigorous isolation of pollutants is implemented.
I have corresponded with a number of Chemical Engineers who feel that safety with hydrogen is no more of an issue than with gasoline. I had always thought of the Hindenburg as a graphic example of the extreme risk of hydrogen. Engineers have informed me that the reason the Hindenburg had its spectacular demise was due to the highly flammable materials used in its construction. They tell me the fire would have been just as spectacular if started by petroleum fuels as it was with hydrogen as the inflatant. What we saw was the skin materials combusting, not the hydrogen.
As far as transportation is concerned, I have met and/or passed a number of hydrogen transport trucks (18-wheel tanker types) on local roads and interstate highways. Those are just the ones I could identify when my wife was driving and I was a passenger. I'm sure that there have been more that I did not identify when I was driving and paying attention to the highway. And, even when a passenger, I am often doing something other than reading labels on trucks.
One of my daughters is a Chemical Engineer with Air Products Corp. and she tells me that hydrogen tankers have been safely transporting the gas, both pressurized and liquifiied, by truck and rail for many decades.
There has been some discussion of what the technical issues would be with distribution of hydrogen by pipeline. Several metallurgical types have told me that problems like corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement of metals, which some have raised as issues, are no longer problems. I have not tried to make a further identification of potential problems in this area.
I will continue to follow hydrogen. I am not necessarily expecting investment opportunities in the near future, although that is not impossible. I do hope to be ready when opportunities do start to appear on the horizon.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
I believe that fuel cells that use hydrocarbons directly are much more expensive because of the massive amounts of platinum or palladium needed for the catalytic surface. So the amount of carbon released may be less, but at a prohibitive cost. If another reader has more information, please post.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
F.E.B. - - -
Thanks for wrapping your thoughts with your usual acerbic wit. I agree hydrogen has a way to go, but there will be a discontinuity upward at some point in time. I'd like to be just in front of that as an investor.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Thanks for the GM stock correction.
Capacitive storage should be very efficient, except for the question of charge leakage. I am not up to speed on the technology. The entire field of energy storage could become a big thing. Batteries, fuel cells, mechanical storage and capacitors should become big businesses. So much for what many consider boring.
There is movement in the direction of combining capacitor function into battery electrodes. John Petersen could comment on this. If interested, you should review his articles here on Seeking Alpha.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
We should be learning a lot about the cost of hydrogen stations soon. There are about 175 in North America right now and 1000 coming in both Japan and Germany by 2013. The 32 stations that Shell plans for Southern California are estimated at $1 million each, considerably more than a comparable gas station. What is likely is that a hydrogen pump would probably be an added island at an existing gas station in many cases which would be a much lower cost than a stand alone station.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
John - - -
Thanks for your comment. I agree with the use of the term "future-tech". The happy investor will be the one who pays enough attention to be able to catch the future just before the masses recognize it. I believe that hydrogen is still definitely in the cocoon stage. I just want to keep the butterfly net at hand for when the first butterflies emerge.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Thanks. I was not aware of RNNM. I will do some research.
The role of hydrogen in global energy systems is greatly under appreciated. It has many advantages over batteries and more complex synthetic fuel chemicals for energy storage. The increasing use of alternative energy from wind and solar brings the need for energy storage to the fore.
Auto Sales: U.S. and China Driving in Different Directions [View article]
I can accept your 12.2 million for 2010. The JD Powers estimate is a couple of months old.
The JD powers estimate for 2011 (from the article and plotted in the graph) is 13.2 million which is slightly higher than your estimate.
The wild card in 2011, for both China and U.S. light vehicle sales, is the cost of gasoline. If oil continues the recent trajectory, gasoline in the U.S. will go near or over $4 a gallon. New vehicle purchases probably will be suppressed in that circumstance.
Auto Sales: U.S. and China Driving in Different Directions [View article]
Did you read the article? The final sentence is:
Simply based on population ratios it might be expected that China could eventually have around 3 - 4 times the auto sales of the U.S.
Bailout Economics [View article]
I can justify bailouts when the "bailer" gets something from the "bailee". With financial institutions the concessions should include restructuring, as in a bankruptcy, with capital and debt positions taking haircuts or even liquidation when necessary.
That has not happened so the past and continuing bailout mentality is not on my acceptable list. We have gotten to this situation with wealth concentration by oligarchy and the bailouts are simply enabling the further transfer of wealth from the bulk of the citizenry to the oligarchy.
The problem is structural. The problem is "oligarchical". The problem is growing bigger with each passing day.
William Jennings Bryan could not gain traction with his populism approach to the problem 110+ years ago, but, with the McKinley assassination, Teddy Roosevelt entered the presidency through the back door and addressed the problem of oligarchy (aka trusts) of that previous era.
The broken political system in the U.S. is arguing debt reduction facing the crowd while getting bigger shovels to work to load the money into the oligarchy money wagons hidden behind the speakers' platform.
I repeat your final paragraph which is the most important thing you wrote:
<<<All of which means that sovereign debt is going to
continue to go up rather than down: at heart, bailouts are a way of moving indebtedness from the bailed-out entity to the government doing the bailing out. With yet another debt reduction task force reporting today, it might be time to start asking how and whether crisis-related bailouts can ever be accounted for in long-term sovereign debt planning.>>
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
I think that energy storage technology (batteries included) will be a rapidly developing area in the coming decade. I recommend the articles (on Seeking Alpha) by John Petersen for great discussions of battery technology. The comment streams have attracted some world class experts on the subject, as well. (seekingalpha.com/autho... )
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Thanks for your comment. I agree that the cost calculations are still open ended. The key element regarding electrical power generation for the production of hydrogen is that the grid supply issues of production as consumed is removed for hydrogen production. The grid requires production when there is demand. Hydrogen can be produced when power is available.
You can think of hydrogen as a storage system for electricity. That is why pairing production with wind turbines is an attractive technology. Wind is cheaper than nuclear and is within 10% or so of the cost of burning coal from most estimates I have found. Wind may be cheaper than coal if carbon dioxide sequestering and rigorous isolation of pollutants is implemented.
I have corresponded with a number of Chemical Engineers who feel that safety with hydrogen is no more of an issue than with gasoline. I had always thought of the Hindenburg as a graphic example of the extreme risk of hydrogen. Engineers have informed me that the reason the Hindenburg had its spectacular demise was due to the highly flammable materials used in its construction. They tell me the fire would have been just as spectacular if started by petroleum fuels as it was with hydrogen as the inflatant. What we saw was the skin materials combusting, not the hydrogen.
As far as transportation is concerned, I have met and/or passed a number of hydrogen transport trucks (18-wheel tanker types) on local roads and interstate highways. Those are just the ones I could identify when my wife was driving and I was a passenger. I'm sure that there have been more that I did not identify when I was driving and paying attention to the highway. And, even when a passenger, I am often doing something other than reading labels on trucks.
One of my daughters is a Chemical Engineer with Air Products Corp. and she tells me that hydrogen tankers have been safely transporting the gas, both pressurized and liquifiied, by truck and rail for many decades.
There has been some discussion of what the technical issues would be with distribution of hydrogen by pipeline. Several metallurgical types have told me that problems like corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement of metals, which some have raised as issues, are no longer problems. I have not tried to make a further identification of potential problems in this area.
I will continue to follow hydrogen. I am not necessarily expecting investment opportunities in the near future, although that is not impossible. I do hope to be ready when opportunities do start to appear on the horizon.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Chicken feathers indeed!
Thanks for making this comment with some totally new information.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Thanks for wrapping your thoughts with your usual acerbic wit. I agree hydrogen has a way to go, but there will be a discontinuity upward at some point in time. I'd like to be just in front of that as an investor.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Capacitive storage should be very efficient, except for the question of charge leakage. I am not up to speed on the technology. The entire field of energy storage could become a big thing. Batteries, fuel cells, mechanical storage and capacitors should become big businesses. So much for what many consider boring.
There is movement in the direction of combining capacitor function into battery electrodes. John Petersen could comment on this. If interested, you should review his articles here on Seeking Alpha.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]
Thanks for your comment. I agree with the use of the term "future-tech". The happy investor will be the one who pays enough attention to be able to catch the future just before the masses recognize it. I believe that hydrogen is still definitely in the cocoon stage. I just want to keep the butterfly net at hand for when the first butterflies emerge.
Hydrogen Fuel Technology: Not Dead Yet [View article]