John Lounsbury
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Analyzing Market Troughs and Rebounds [View article]
Seeking Alpha does strange things at times to slashes and quotation marks.
Analyzing Market Troughs and Rebounds [View article]
Just what is different is the great question and that is why you are seeing so much discussion, both logical and illogical. This is a great time for economic/financial/inv... junkies to be alive and seeking education. I just hope we can all afford the tuition.
Analyzing Market Troughs and Rebounds [View article]
One area that deserves an additional observation is volatility. When they refer to record volatility, I assume they mean daily (and possibly intraday) volatilty. Looking at volatility from the point of view of 10% corrections, this bear market has had only three (so far), tying with the 1973-74 bear market for the fewest of any secular bear market since 1974.
Looking at volatility from the view point of 20% corrections, if the November bottom holds this bear market will also tie with the 1973-74 secular bear market for the fewest (none). If the bottom of this market comes with only one drop below the November 20 low, this market could end up with only one 20% correction (just barely for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite, but none for the DJIA), still less than all other secular bear markets since 1900, except for 1973-74.
So daily volatility has been unusually high, but longer term measurements have been low. I will defer to an investor psychology expert to discuss what significance, if any, this has.