Evaluating the 'Dogs of the Dow' Through Pairs [View article]
G&D - - -
Happy New Year.
From the mid-90s through 2005 I did the 10 dogs every January (rolled over from previous year). I haven't been paying much attention the last several years. Thanks for the reminder.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Jeff - - -
Shah Gilani, over at Money Morning, has some of the same investment themes (seekingalpha.com/artic... ) posted this morning. I hope this boat doesn't get too crowded. Shah does emphasize commodities, which neither of us has as a primary theme. I see that as a dollar play and an improving world economy play. Weaker dollar plus stronger world economy both push commodities higher in dollars. If there are any economic disappointments, commodities will go down fast and the dollar will be stronger than many are expecting. So commodities are definitely not a buy and hold for me in 2010. I will be doing some things in that area, but risk control will be key for me.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Jeff - - -
Good discussion. I like using Vanguard Health Care (VGHCX) for long-term core holdings and use the ETFs for shorter term positions where I try more aggressive risk management. I also agree with your technology picks and the sector in general - stay long until it's not working anymore. For short-term trading I like the leveraged QQQ (QLD).
I agree that energy is problematic, as are other materials stocks, including precious metals. I think they are better for renting (trading) than owning (long-term positions).
The broad ETFs are better for a core emerging market position, but I like EWZ and FXI for shorter term holdings with more aggressive risk management.
I am hesitant in the cyclicals because I am hesitant on the economy.
Overall, you are thinking along the same lines as I am. That is scary.
No Market Gain Without Economic Pain [View article]
JC - - -
Good discussion.
I would point out that, when you say "eventually these stocks will need to be replenished to meet future demand" you are not going on to say that this is at the center of current debate. The optimists would say your "eventually" is about six months and the pessimists would say it is of the order of six years.
I agree that we will necessarily endure some pain in order to get healthy again. We have some structural damage in the financial system which can not be papered over; it must be repaired or rebuilt. You mentioned embracing pain and acknowledge it as weakness leaving the body. There is an old adage: No pain, no gain. I think it applies currently.
Five Leadership Lessons From Obama's First Month [View article]
On item 4: If Obama wants bipartisanship to occur, he must get Republicans to propose things they would like to see considered and included in legislation. I think he blew it by assuming if he talked to Republicans and got a few compromises incorporated, that they would support the stimulus package. They didn't.
If you want bipartisanship, you must have both parties at the table in writing major legislation so that compromises occur in the generation of legislation, not just as the time to vote arrives.
All that being said, the "loyal opposition" must be loyal to the concept of bipartisanship. Unfortunately, I am cynical enough to believe that, all too often, the party out of power has too many people who are trying to position for a future political advantage rather than aid the party in power trying to solve problems. Right now, that is Republcans. Not too long age it was Democrats.
On item #5: Never trust your friends without verification. If you view your friends through the lense of your own experiences, you will fail to verify factors you mistakenly think you know about them.
Bracing for 2009 Earnings - Barron's [View article]
Rachael - - -
You quote Barrons as estimating 2009 earnings for the S&P 500 from two sources as $74.10 and $62.73. I have been reading estimates in the 40's in other sources. Can you explain the differences? Are some excluding one-time charges and the lower estimates including them?
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
petyaczar - - -
The problem with mark to market is not the mark, it is the market.
The idea is sound. The implementation is flawed. How can you implement mark to market when there is no market? One example is the CDS mess. There is no public exchange for these instruments. I keep hearing that there is a process started to establish such an exchange, but I expect that many in the financial world are hoping that it does not happen quickly or suddenly because of the exposure for more of their clay feet to be uncovered and eroded.
I believe that if there had been a public CDS daily exchange for CDSs set up 8-10 years ago, the current crisis would be much less severe. For one thing, the public scrutiny probably would have greatly diminshed the willingness of firms to enter these conracts because of the market risk. If there had been only a fraction of the CDSs issued, the overall risk profiles in the financial world would have been reduced. Too many firms said: "We can go into super-high leverage on less than sterling instruments because we have insurance against loss (CDSs)." If we had only 10-20% of the CDS world, we would have avoided a lot of the faulty rationalization in the preceding sentence (in quotes).
Canaccord Adams on Four Likeliest Economic Scenarios for 2009 [View article]
I, for one, appreciate the perspectives of the author. I guess that puts me in a minority of one so far in this comment stream.
I see several stocks I have owned in the past but been out of for nine months and longer. One stock I do own (and haven't seen commentary on) is HOLX. I have been short against the box for six months to protect past capital gains because my analysis indicates much higher fair value. If we have recession (depression?) that lasts more than 18-21 months, my fair value estimates will be too high. But, even then, my assessment is the current price is too low.
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
I have to keep coming back to John Petersen's comment stream because commenters keep coming in for days.
Mark Goldes - - -
Two comments (questions actually):
1. Capturing electrical energy from an electromagnetic field customarily requires moving a conductor (usually a coil) through a magnetic field. Can you explain how the various concepts you have cited capture electrical energy? Does the earth's magnetic field move with respect to a stationary position on the earth's surface? Is motion along the earth's surface required of the wire (coil). Or are we looking at revolutionary applications?
2. I have to look into the absolute zero reference you make. Absolute zero is a concept derived from the physical observation that volume vs temperature measurements for a dilute gas (ideal gas) extrapolates to zero volume at some low temperature. The zero volume temperature is called absolute zero. The zero volume can not be actually reached because it requires the gas that has ideal behavior at higher temperatures to retain ideal behavior as it becomes very dense at low temperatures. The actual size of the gas atoms (or molecules) force deviation from the extrapolation. When they get very close together the ideal gas characteristic of individual atom volume being negligible with respect to the total volume no longer holds. The volume can go no smaller than the volume of all the atoms (or one atom if you invoke nuclear fusion).
Thus the zero volume of absolute zero can never be reached.
It is also a fact that absolute zero is impossible to reach on the temperature scale, as well. It is shown in Thermodynamics that temperture as we know it is actually on a logarithmic scale. The log of zero is minus infinity, an undefined (and therefore unreachable) quantity.
So Mark, I have to spend some time looking into the energy of matter at absolute ideas you attribute to de Broglie, Bohm and Vigler that you mention.
I remember the furor for years over the possibility of cold fusion, including several reported demonstrations. None of the demonstrations were reproducible.
Let me paraphrase a statement that has been applied to predicting economic events, like recessions: "Reported revolutionary discoveries have preceded 100 of the past 2 technology revolutions."
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
Paulk8756 - - -
Always find your comments informative.
One note on Prius mileage. You imply that highway mileage is less than the 40+ average. I have talked to every Prius driver I have had met up with in the past year (estimate to be approximately 12). Two of these are personal acquaintance. Most of these have kept written mileage logs. One reported an average mileage on the low 40's. Several reported 44-47 mpg. Two reported average mileage of 49-51. None of these people live in a city, most in low density suburban areas. All reported that local and highway driving mileage to be within 5% of each other. One acquaintance reported a round trip from New England to Chicago, driving at the speed limits, with just over 50 mpg. Now, based on what these people said to me, I believe they all (except the low 40's driver) practice fuel saving driving habits, such as controlled acceleration, not going far above 65mph on interstates, and anticipating stops by taking foot off the gas in advance of the time to break.
I've done this research to aid in making a assessment of whether to buy a Prius. (I have not bought one yet. My wife and I continue to drive an Audi A6 and a Toyota Highlander, both four wheel drive. Incidently, we get 2-4 mpg above the highway mileage ratings of 24 mpg on every trip. The variability is due primarily to wind directions and secondarily to traffic jams. We also practice fuel saving driving habits.)
Finally, clean diesel fuels (biodiesel is especially clean) have the potential to impact the ICE options positively. Thanks for pointing out diesel.
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
John - - -
Some comments on your thoguhts:
1. I don't see the comparison between Moore's Law for semiconductor technology and battery technology. Silicon semiconductor technology improvement has been based on the evolution of a photolithography imaging over the past three decades. Battery technology has not identified a controlling technology (like photolithography has been for silicon semiconductors), to say nothing of not even settled on the chemistry framework. I see battery technology at a point more like the 1960's when the future of electronics was still being torn between vacuum tubes and transistors.
2. What are the supply elasticity issues for the various raw materials? wz has stated: "Lithium is extraordinarily common in the US, Chile, and China." Do you agree? What about lead and nickel? What are the mining and production exposures for the various materials, not only supply elasticity, but also environmental?
3. I may have missed it in this article, but don't you think an ICE to HEV to EV is a rational evolution path? Could it be argued that this evolution might be better than a revolution?
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
There is a great range of opinion in these comments. I am reminded of an experience from 1984 (the year in my life, not the book). In 1984 I bought a day one IBM PC. It was a poor decision based on cost/performance. I paid $4,000 for less computing power than is now available in hand-held devices. But that is not the reason I bring up my history.
In 1984, many of my tech savvy acquaintances ridiculed my purchase based on their arguments that:
1. The new technology had no chance of significnat growth into the turf of the mainframe computer and would never be more than an expensive curiosity.
2. There were no conceivable needs that this PC could ever meet.
3. The idea that a large number of people would ever consider having their own computer was ridiculous.
4. Who would spend 100 times the cost of a scientific calculator for a PC? Their answer: Most students couldn't afford a PC.
Evaluating the 'Dogs of the Dow' Through Pairs [View article]
Happy New Year.
From the mid-90s through 2005 I did the 10 dogs every January (rolled over from previous year). I haven't been paying much attention the last several years. Thanks for the reminder.
John
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Shah Gilani, over at Money Morning, has some of the same investment themes (seekingalpha.com/artic... ) posted this morning. I hope this boat doesn't get too crowded. Shah does emphasize commodities, which neither of us has as a primary theme. I see that as a dollar play and an improving world economy play. Weaker dollar plus stronger world economy both push commodities higher in dollars. If there are any economic disappointments, commodities will go down fast and the dollar will be stronger than many are expecting. So commodities are definitely not a buy and hold for me in 2010. I will be doing some things in that area, but risk control will be key for me.
Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
Good discussion. I like using Vanguard Health Care (VGHCX) for long-term core holdings and use the ETFs for shorter term positions where I try more aggressive risk management. I also agree with your technology picks and the sector in general - stay long until it's not working anymore. For short-term trading I like the leveraged QQQ (QLD).
I agree that energy is problematic, as are other materials stocks, including precious metals. I think they are better for renting (trading) than owning (long-term positions).
The broad ETFs are better for a core emerging market position, but I like EWZ and FXI for shorter term holdings with more aggressive risk management.
I am hesitant in the cyclicals because I am hesitant on the economy.
Overall, you are thinking along the same lines as I am. That is scary.
No Market Gain Without Economic Pain [View article]
Good discussion.
I would point out that, when you say "eventually these stocks will need to be replenished to meet future demand" you are not going on to say that this is at the center of current debate. The optimists would say your "eventually" is about six months and the pessimists would say it is of the order of six years.
I agree that we will necessarily endure some pain in order to get healthy again. We have some structural damage in the financial system which can not be papered over; it must be repaired or rebuilt. You mentioned embracing pain and acknowledge it as weakness leaving the body. There is an old adage: No pain, no gain. I think it applies currently.
Five Predictions for This Market [View article]
Nice comment. But I have to ask: Have you factored in seasonality factors in making your price projections?
Five Predictions for This Market [View article]
You wrote: "Your left-winger, government reliant friends were the ones applying for bad ARM's they could not afford."
Do you have information about the political demographics of fraudulent mortgage applications?
Five Leadership Lessons From Obama's First Month [View article]
If you want bipartisanship, you must have both parties at the table in writing major legislation so that compromises occur in the generation of legislation, not just as the time to vote arrives.
All that being said, the "loyal opposition" must be loyal to the concept of bipartisanship. Unfortunately, I am cynical enough to believe that, all too often, the party out of power has too many people who are trying to position for a future political advantage rather than aid the party in power trying to solve problems. Right now, that is Republcans. Not too long age it was Democrats.
On item #5: Never trust your friends without verification. If you view your friends through the lense of your own experiences, you will fail to verify factors you mistakenly think you know about them.
Bracing for 2009 Earnings - Barron's [View article]
You quote Barrons as estimating 2009 earnings for the S&P 500 from two sources as $74.10 and $62.73. I have been reading estimates in the 40's in other sources. Can you explain the differences? Are some excluding one-time charges and the lower estimates including them?
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
The problem with mark to market is not the mark, it is the market.
The idea is sound. The implementation is flawed. How can you implement mark to market when there is no market? One example is the CDS mess. There is no public exchange for these instruments. I keep hearing that there is a process started to establish such an exchange, but I expect that many in the financial world are hoping that it does not happen quickly or suddenly because of the exposure for more of their clay feet to be uncovered and eroded.
I believe that if there had been a public CDS daily exchange for CDSs set up 8-10 years ago, the current crisis would be much less severe. For one thing, the public scrutiny probably would have greatly diminshed the willingness of firms to enter these conracts because of the market risk. If there had been only a fraction of the CDSs issued, the overall risk profiles in the financial world would have been reduced. Too many firms said: "We can go into super-high leverage on less than sterling instruments because we have insurance against loss (CDSs)." If we had only 10-20% of the CDS world, we would have avoided a lot of the faulty rationalization in the preceding sentence (in quotes).
Canaccord Adams on Four Likeliest Economic Scenarios for 2009 [View article]
I see several stocks I have owned in the past but been out of for nine months and longer. One stock I do own (and haven't seen commentary on) is HOLX. I have been short against the box for six months to protect past capital gains because my analysis indicates much higher fair value. If we have recession (depression?) that lasts more than 18-21 months, my fair value estimates will be too high. But, even then, my assessment is the current price is too low.
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
Mark Goldes - - -
Two comments (questions actually):
1. Capturing electrical energy from an electromagnetic field customarily requires moving a conductor (usually a coil) through a magnetic field. Can you explain how the various concepts you have cited capture electrical energy? Does the earth's magnetic field move with respect to a stationary position on the earth's surface? Is motion along the earth's surface required of the wire (coil). Or are we looking at revolutionary applications?
2. I have to look into the absolute zero reference you make. Absolute zero is a concept derived from the physical observation that volume vs temperature measurements for a dilute gas (ideal gas) extrapolates to zero volume at some low temperature. The zero volume temperature is called absolute zero. The zero volume can not be actually reached because it requires the gas that has ideal behavior at higher temperatures to retain ideal behavior as it becomes very dense at low temperatures. The actual size of the gas atoms (or molecules) force deviation from the extrapolation. When they get very close together the ideal gas characteristic of individual atom volume being negligible with respect to the total volume no longer holds. The volume can go no smaller than the volume of all the atoms (or one atom if you invoke nuclear fusion).
Thus the zero volume of absolute zero can never be reached.
It is also a fact that absolute zero is impossible to reach on the temperature scale, as well. It is shown in Thermodynamics that temperture as we know it is actually on a logarithmic scale. The log of zero is minus infinity, an undefined (and therefore unreachable) quantity.
So Mark, I have to spend some time looking into the energy of matter at absolute ideas you attribute to de Broglie, Bohm and Vigler that you mention.
I remember the furor for years over the possibility of cold fusion, including several reported demonstrations. None of the demonstrations were reproducible.
Let me paraphrase a statement that has been applied to predicting economic events, like recessions: "Reported revolutionary discoveries have preceded 100 of the past 2 technology revolutions."
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
Always find your comments informative.
One note on Prius mileage. You imply that highway mileage is less than the 40+ average. I have talked to every Prius driver I have had met up with in the past year (estimate to be approximately 12). Two of these are personal acquaintance. Most of these have kept written mileage logs. One reported an average mileage on the low 40's. Several reported 44-47 mpg. Two reported average mileage of 49-51. None of these people live in a city, most in low density suburban areas. All reported that local and highway driving mileage to be within 5% of each other. One acquaintance reported a round trip from New England to Chicago, driving at the speed limits, with just over 50 mpg. Now, based on what these people said to me, I believe they all (except the low 40's driver) practice fuel saving driving habits, such as controlled acceleration, not going far above 65mph on interstates, and anticipating stops by taking foot off the gas in advance of the time to break.
I've done this research to aid in making a assessment of whether to buy a Prius. (I have not bought one yet. My wife and I continue to drive an Audi A6 and a Toyota Highlander, both four wheel drive. Incidently, we get 2-4 mpg above the highway mileage ratings of 24 mpg on every trip. The variability is due primarily to wind directions and secondarily to traffic jams. We also practice fuel saving driving habits.)
Finally, clean diesel fuels (biodiesel is especially clean) have the potential to impact the ICE options positively. Thanks for pointing out diesel.
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
Some comments on your thoguhts:
1. I don't see the comparison between Moore's Law for semiconductor technology and battery technology. Silicon semiconductor technology improvement has been based on the evolution of a photolithography imaging over the past three decades. Battery technology has not identified a controlling technology (like photolithography has been for silicon semiconductors), to say nothing of not even settled on the chemistry framework. I see battery technology at a point more like the 1960's when the future of electronics was still being torn between vacuum tubes and transistors.
2. What are the supply elasticity issues for the various raw materials? wz has stated: "Lithium is extraordinarily common in the US, Chile, and China." Do you agree? What about lead and nickel? What are the mining and production exposures for the various materials, not only supply elasticity, but also environmental?
3. I may have missed it in this article, but don't you think an ICE to HEV to EV is a rational evolution path? Could it be argued that this evolution might be better than a revolution?
Thanks for keeping the focus on this topic.
Time for America to Fire First Shot in the EV Revolution [View article]
In 1984, many of my tech savvy acquaintances ridiculed my purchase based on their arguments that:
1. The new technology had no chance of significnat growth into the turf of the mainframe computer and would never be more than an expensive curiosity.
2. There were no conceivable needs that this PC could ever meet.
3. The idea that a large number of people would ever consider having their own computer was ridiculous.
4. Who would spend 100 times the cost of a scientific calculator for a PC? Their answer: Most students couldn't afford a PC.
This is food for thought.
95 Stocks with Low Debt to Equity [View article]
Even more important than just looking a debt/equity, in my opinion, is cash position. I would run a sub-screen for cash on the balance sheet.