Seeking Alpha

Paulo Santos

View as an RSS Feed
View Paulo Santos' Comments BY TICKER:
AA, AAMRQ.PK, AAPL, ABFS, ACI, AFFY, AGOL, AGQ, AIS, AKS, ALEX, ALKS, ALTR, AMAT, AMD, AMGN, AMLN, AMZN, ANR, AONE, APC, ARLP, ARMH, ASNA, ASYS, ATPG, ATVI, AVAV, AVB, AWC, AZN, BAC, BAMM, BBY, BCPC, BFLY, BHI, BHP, BIDU, BKS, BMY, BNO, BNPQY.PK, BOIL, BP, BRCD, BRK.B, BRKS, BTI, BTU, BX, BYD, C, CACC, CAT, CCG, CCMO.PK, CDE, CF, CFI, CHK, CHL, CLD, CLF, CLWR, CMCSA, CMG, CNW, CNX, COP, COPX, COST, CPER, CPN, CQP, CRDC, CRM, CRUD, CRZBY.PK, CSCO, CSOAF.PK, CSX, CTL, CU, CUPM, CVC, CVX, CXPO, CY, DB, DBB, DBO, DBS, DCM, DCNG, DDS, DE, DELL, DEXO, DGAZ, DGL, DGLD, DGP, DGZ, DHI, DHT, DHX, DIA, DISCK, DNO, DRR, DRYS, DSLV, DSX, DTO, DTV, DUSA, DVN, DZZ, EA, EBAY, ECA, ECHO, EDR, EGLE, EKDKQ.PK, ELON, ENER, EOG, EOS, EQIX, EQR, ERO, ESIC, ETB, ETV, ETW, EU, EUFN, EUO, EVEP, EWA, EWG, EWJ, EWP, EWQ, EXC, EXM, EZPW, F, FB, FCG, FCX, FIO, FLWS, FRAK, FRI, FRO, FSLR, FSUMF.PK, FTR, FXA, FXB, FXE, FXF, FXI, FXTCF.PK, FXY, GAZ, GDP, GDX, GDXJ, GE, GEN, GGP, GLD, GLL, GLW, GM, GMCR, GME, GNI, GNK, GOOG, GRMN, GRPN, GRVY, GS, GST, HAS, HBM, HD, HFC, HGG, HII, HMSY, HPQ, HPT, HRB, HTLD, IAU, IBM, IGT, INTC, IRBT, IRE, IRL, ITUB, IWM, IXN, JASO, JBHT, JCP, JIVE, JJC, JJN, JJT, JJU, JKS, JNJ, JOY, JPM, JRCC, JYF, JYN, KFT, KLAC, KMP, KMR, KNX, KO, KOG, KOL, KOLD, KORS, KR, KWK, KWT, LBTYA, LBTYK, LCAV, LD, LDK, LEHMQ.PK, LEN, LLY, LNG, LNKD, LO, LPSN, LQMT.OB, LRAD, LSTR, LULU, LVS, LYV, M, MA, MALL, MASC, MCD, MCF, MDC, MGM, MHO, MHR, MMI, MMR, MMYT, MO, MRK, MRTN, MS, MSFT, MT, MTH, MU, MWW, N, NAGS, NFLX, NG, NILE, NM, NMM, NOK, NRG, NRP, NSR, NTDOF.PK, NTRI, NTT, NUE, NVDA, NVLS, NVR, NVS, NYX, OAS, ODFL, OIH, OIL, OLO, OPEN, ORCL, OSTK, P, PCCC, PCH, PCL, PCLN, PCS, PCX, PEG, PEIX, PETS, PG, PHM, PHYS, PKOL, PM, POPE, POT, PRGN, PRGO, PRTS, PSLV, PT, PTM, PVR, PXP, PYGMF.PK, QCOM, QQQ, RAI, RAX, RENN, REPYY.PK, REXX, RIG, RIMM, RIO, RL, RNOW, ROC, RSH, RYL, RYN, S, SAP, SAVE, SBLK, SCCO, SCGLY.PK, SCI, SCO, SCV, SD, SDRL, SFLY, SFSF, SFY, SGOL, SGQRF.PK, SHFL, SHLD, SINA, SIRI, SIVR, SJT, SKYY, SLV, SLX, SMH, SMS, SNDK, SNE, SNH, SO, SOXX, SPBTF.PK, SPLS, SPMD, SPY, SSNLF.PK, STD, STEC, STEI, STMP, STON, STP, STX, SXCI, SYPR, SYX, SZO, T, TA, TBI, TDG, TEF, TGT, TIE, TJX, TNH, TNP, TOL, TRIDQ.PK, TSL, TSLA, TSO, TVIX, TXN, TZOO, UBG, UBNT, UCO, UDN, UDR, UGA, UGAZ, UGL, UGLD, ULE, UNG, UNL, UNTD, UPS, URA, URR, USL, USLV, USMO, USO, USV, UUP, UVXY, V, VALE, VIAB, VITC, VLKAY.PK, VLNC, VLO, VMW, VPRT, VVTV, VZ, WAG, WBK, WDC, WERN, WFC, WFR, WIN, WLT, WMB, WMT, WNR, WRLD, WYNN, X, XHB, XLF, XLK, XLU, XOM, YCL, YCS, YHOO, YPF, Z, ZNGA, ZSL
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recorded $897M in outflows yesterday, the largest decline since August 2011. Commerzbank wants to see more days of outflows, but says it's surely a negative if even ETF investors are caught up "in the selling pull." More: Central GoldTrust (CTU) now trades at a discount to NAV vs. an average 3.4% premium over the past year.  [View news story]
    You can imagine how it will be like such a large ETF selling into the physical market.
    May 23 10:16 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Obviously I didn't - as I said, I'd only buy it if I could get it at the IPO price, and I'd flip it in the first session if I had bought it. So the returns would have been 0-12% of I had bought (which I didn't).
    May 23 07:11 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
    AAPL being somewhat hit to fund FB purchases is realistic. The other part should be general market weakness.

    But no, I don't think you'd be seeing the opposite movement (selling FB to fund AAPL purchases) so soon.
    May 23 07:07 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, I said as much - diversification mitigates it. But doesn't totally eliminate it, and doesn't remove the incentive for their large customers to do like Zynga did, transforming AWS into a peaking plant.
    May 23 06:55 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, I said as much in the article, though with the customers being in the same geographical area, there will probably still be peaks.

    Also, that doesn't remove the incentive for any given customer to do as I explained.
    May 23 06:54 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    I wouldn't say someone that buys in the IPO to sell 1 day later isn't an investor because of that. It's something with a solid statistical base, he'd be as much of an investor as someone relying on statistical arbitrage to put the bread in the table.
    May 22 10:02 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Yes, if possible one should buy every IPO (if one can get allocation), and then sell in the first session. Even FB had a 0-12% return if one did that.

    Read this: http://seekingalpha.co...

    OXF seems like it will have a rough time, like most coal producers. I'll try doing a new series tomorrow on several coal producers.
    May 22 09:07 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, when they reach scale, doing like Zynga can actually present better economics for them than taking 100% of the capacity in-house. This happens because a lot of the capacity would otherwise sit idle.

    I believe a lot of companies will end up reaching the insight I describe above.
    May 22 08:49 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Avoiding IPOs makes no sense. Avoiding holding IPO stock after the first session, now that's something altogether different.
    May 22 08:42 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    In the midst of many contracts it's always possible to have some ties like these, they don't look like terminal stuff given the values. The coal contract seems the worst, but that's spread over several years.
    May 22 06:42 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    If natural gas stays low for 2 years, maybe. The sector could conceivably become a wasteland if that happens.
    May 22 06:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Over the longer term one should see higher exports, but the retiring of some coal units and the lack of new coal units will be somewhat worrying, yes. Still, what I expect to drive coal longer term will be natural gas going meaningfully higher, like $4-$5 at least, maybe higher.

    All in all I am not expecting coal to trade like it did during 2007/2008 or 2010, even though I expect it to go higher.
    May 22 04:23 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    I don't panic on rumors, I try to avoid standing in their way - that's the reason why I didn't go long JRCC or PCX.
    May 22 03:26 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Where do I deny natural gas rallied strongly? Hell, I was long natural gas for almost the entirety of that rally ... coal can't rally with natural gas yet, because the first part of the rally was just to re-establish equilibrium. From now on if natural gas continues, THEN it helps coal go up as well.
    May 22 03:26 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    It might be a false rumor, but Mark, you're clearly showing strong signs of the Nile ... :-)
    May 22 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
5,013 Comments
2,680 Likes