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Today - Thursday, February 23, 2012
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7:37 AM "We have to be realistic. It's not yet in the bank," says a senior IMF official warning of "huge implementation risks" for the Greek bailout. Translation: It's easier to cut a check allowing Greece to pay its creditors (while taking on new ones) than it is for extra-national officials sitting in a room to remake an entire country. Comment!
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7:15 AM More on oil: The correlation between oil prices and equities is melting away, notes Scott Barber. Since the financial crisis, the oil price has been demand driven - with crude moving higher along with stocks. Of late, price moves are more to do with supply worries which could presage something less than positive for the equity markets. 1 Comment
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6:59 AM Do two negatives make a positive? A tie-up between General Motors and Peugeot (PEUGY.PK) - two automakers that both lose money in Europe - doesn't makes sense to Sanford Bernstein's Max Warburton. "PSA and Opel can’t restructure independently. We see no reason why putting PSA and Opel together would speed up the process of plant closures, as both have excess capacity." Comment!
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5:57 AM The European Commission now forecasts a mild recession for the eurozone, with the region shrinking 0.3% this year. As recently as November, the EC had expected 0.5% growth this year. One of the sharpest country revisions is for Spain, now expected to contract 1% vs. prior forecast of +0.7%. Stocks give back gains after the report: London +0.2%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -0.3%. Euro +0.5% to $1.3314. Comment!
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5:29 AM The U.K. and Japan are urging the U.S. to rewrite the Volcker Rule, concerned trading restrictions on U.S. banks could hit sovereign debt markets at a particularly fragile moment. In a high-profile expression of their concern, U.K. finmin George Osborne and Japanese counterpart Jun Azumi have written an op-ed in the FT. Comment!
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4:48 AM Spanish PM Rajoy has reportedly asked European officials to raise Spain's debt reduction target to 5%, arguing the current 4.4% target will be impossible to meet. Sources say the EC is preparing to cut its eurozone growth forecasts, and Spain may latch on to the downward revision to argue its target needs adjustment. Comment!
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4:40 AM China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms. That's the conclusion of a report, to be released Monday by the World Bank and a Chinese think tank, which challenges how China's economic model has developed over the last decade and stresses the need to scale back China's vast state-owned enterprises. Comment!
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4:15 AM Nissan (NSANY.PK) will recall 250,000 cars globally to fix a mechanical glitch that could lead to a fuel leak in extreme cases. No accidents have been reported due to the fault. Comment!
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4:13 AM Ifo's index of German business confidence rises to 109.6 from 108.3, better than the 108.8 expected. Current conditions rises to 117.5 from 116.3, beating expectations of 116.5. Business expectations up to 102.3 from 100.9, vs. 102 expected. Comment!
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3:49 AM Economists expect China’s Premier Wen Jiabao to target an expansion of around 7.5% in his report to the National People’s Congress next month, a slight pullback from the 8% goal maintained from 2005-2011. A cut in the target growth rate would suggest policymakers are prepared to accept slower growth as the cost of shifting the economy’s drivers to consumption from exports and investment. Comment!
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3:06 AM That sounds more like it: Shanghai denies plans to ease home buying restrictions, keeping itself in line with Beijing's goal of curbing speculation and cooling rapidly rising prices. But with home prices now falling in China's major markets, it might be time to relax the restrictions. Comment!
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3:01 AM Asian companies are preparing to accelerate acquisitions in Europe to take advantage of asset prices depressed by the region's debt crisis, says Colin Banfield, Citigroup’s head of M&A for Asia-Pacific. Asia-to-Europe acquisitions have already hit $14B YTD, vs. $7.3B for the same period last year, and last year ended up at a four-year high. Comment!
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2:43 AM BofA (BAC) will accelerate its expansion in China, adding as many as five branches in the country over the next 2-3 years from its current three outlets in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. BofA is also open to other options including a securities venture with a local partner. 1 Comment
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2:06 AM Asian markets are mixed, with many of the region's banks under pressure, though Japan is higher as a weaker yen benefits exporters. Japan +0.4% to 9596. Hong Kong -0.7% to 21390. China +0.2% to 2407. India -0.6% to 18043. Comment!
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012
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7:33 PM Mazda Motor (MZDAY.PK) drops 8.2% as the car maker confirms plans to issue $2B in new shares. Comment!
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4:42 PM Accountability update: The former CEO and chairman of Iceland's Kaupthing Bank have been indicted on fraud and market manipulation charges as the country continues to forge its own path - accountability for those who wrongly profited and letting failed institutions fail - in the clean-up from the financial crisis. Comment!
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3:45 PM Germany stands alone, resisting IMF (Washington) pressure to increase the size of the permanent bailout fund in return for the agency's contribution to the Greek bailout. The inside dope says Merkel will give in, but - under domestic political pressure - needs to put a up a good fight. The G-20 meets this weekend. Comment!
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3:23 PM Japan is finally getting serious about fighting deflation, writes Scott Grannis - trying to permanently increase the supply of yen with massive bond purchases paid for by creating reserves. The beneficiaries should be the Japanese economy, the Nikkei, and dollar/yen ( already up 5.1% in 3 weeks). 1 Comment
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2:24 PM Cascade (CASC -0.4%) drifts lower after Global Hunter cut the shares to Accumulate on valuation, citing a potential softening in China lift truck trends. Comment!
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