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- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II) [view article]
- Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
- A Look at a Market That Punishes Risk [view article]
- Stocks vs. Commodities: Which is a Better Investment? [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Eight ETFs to Preserve Your Wealth [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More [view article]
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (9/22/08) [view article]
- Commodities Should Profit from the Bailout Plan [view article]
- Yawning from the Market Sidelines, ETFs in Hand [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
loading ...Recent DBC Articles
- A Look at a Market That Punishes Risk
- Key Asset Class Performance
- Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now?
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II)
- The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part I)
- Stocks vs. Commodities: Which is a Better Investment?
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More
- Chance Carson on Commodity ETFs and ETNs
- Full List of Articles »
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The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II) [view article]
It's not easy to be a professor in this forum, as I initially found out, but it soon became easy for me because I don't write or talk about things that I don't know more about than most people. Aside from that, it is certainly possible that Professor Doran knows more than I do about finance, because my interest in that topic has slackened, but as for oil and gas, 'he could have stood in bed', as somebody said.The basic problem is this: energy economics is still being taught by the wrong people, despite the fact that everybody has found out about the importance of this topic.
Professor Ferdinand E. Banks (Fred) Reply
Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
Iran -Israel war. The weird thing there is it would bolster the dollar. ReplyFriday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
China has, as we know, enormous finacial reserves to put into play to keep their restless minions employed. They will continue to suck in whatever commodities they can afford. Either keep the minions happy or have their throats cut. literally. Other Asian nations are in the same boat.The US will inflate by Infrastucture spending. the US minions are too far under to borrow so printing is useless.
Sth America, now nearly as Socialist as the US, will do the same as China. They will go the economic war path against the US and store commodities for their own use forcing a bankrupt US to raise the bid.
Now, go read your own tea-leaves.
regards
Reply
Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
The problem with your analysis as I see it, is that you have not factored in the major correction coming in commercial real estate, world wide. Regional and local Banks will be failing with 60% of their loans in commercial real estate.Capitalization rates were two low, based on expected appreciation and low interest rates. They will begin to rise with the interest rates and added risk premium due to rising vacancy. Prices of commercial real estate will be falling, as will industrial property with rising unemployment.
This means, that while residential property values may bottom in 2010, there will be a longer delay before commercial real estate will show signs of recovery. New construction might be expected in a more normal recession sponsored by government, but with lower property taxes and failing state governments (CA and NY etc) there is no source of wealth to back up the economy. Then if you really want to get depressed, what will happen as social security tax revenues fall and the system breaks down sooner than expected?
A long bitter road is ahead, better tread carefully.
Might be a that WW III will be needed to end the mess. This could all happen much sooner than you expect. What happens if there is an Iran-Israel war between the time of the election and inaguration? Get right with GOD? Reply
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
I sent my absentee ballot in already and voted for Green or Libertarian and for only my Democrat Congressman Mr. Earl Blumenaurer who has consistently voted against the wars, against the bail outs, etc. My own gut sense is we are in for a very long and deep depression situation, and there is no government or combination of governments that can prevent this from happening. The lows we see now, will look high in another six months as more businesses fail, jobs become scarce worldwide, and trade slows. ReplyFriday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Everyone forgets the HUGE amount of panic deleveraging taking place. margin calls must be keeping the Telcos profitable.What is going to happen in 6-12 months?? Collapsing employment means Govt spending on Infrastructure. HUGE amounts are required. The commodities are not going to be down for long!!
The BULL RAGES ......
regards Reply
Courtenay
Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
What's your opinion on short-term deflation as a result of an imploding economy already in recession? I want to believe you are right about commodities if there is a concerted worldwide effort by central banks to lower interest rates and add lots of liquidity. Thanks for your article. May all this lead to a more civilized world with less corruption...I know...I'm dreaming again. ReplyA Look at a Market That Punishes Risk [view article]
Same old, same old.The only remarkable thing is how wrong most of the prognosticators (might be) who repeated, ad nauseam, "commodity inflation and a much lower dollar."
We all need to remember that the majority can all be wrong and especially the people who predict the future with the most confidence.
The key thing is to point out fundamentals and various historical reactions to similar fundamentals and then admit that it isn't possible to predict with any degree of certainty which scenarios will play out.
Deflation has also occurred, all too often, in the past, accompanied with its well-known destructive effects.
Several signs of returning deflation have been consistently ignored by almost everyone: Falling housing prices, falling stock prices and a looming recession are the most obvious.
Consistent over consumption, combined with lack of savings, in the first world usually leads to a wave of reduced spending ("belt tightening") which would also be deflationary.
Reply
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Good points YR Dog. Thanks everyone. ReplyFriday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
I have read another reason for the strong dollar. This comes from Chuck Butler from Everbank who writes a daily blog called "The Daily Pfennig""One of the things we've learned this week is that the European banks are not getting to go Ollie, Ollie Oxen Free, on the holding of toxic waste debt... And since they are U.S. issued mortgage bonds, the trader that called tells me that they need to have capital reserved in U.S. dollars. Well, usually, these banks use LIBOR for this funding... But with the credit crunch going on all over, LIBOR rates have gone through the roof. So... Looking for alternative means of raising capital, the European banks have turned to the euro / dollar swap market... Selling their euro reserves and buying dollars"
The libor rate does not seem to be coming down any time soon, so Uncle Bucky could be strong for a while. Not good for all the foreign currency ETFs I hold. Reply
Stocks vs. Commodities: Which is a Better Investment? [view article]
I am not sure why this is. Maybe owners of capital have more leverage than owners of commodities, geo-politically speaking. ReplyA Look at a Market That Punishes Risk [view article]
Yep, this market punishes risk. No two ways about it. It seems the streets have started bleeding. And the bleeding will get worse......But in terms of the junk bonds, with closed end funds trading at a 20% discount to NAV and yields of 15ish %, it seems that it might be worth scaling into a few of these dogs that everyone is throwing out. Same might be said for closed end, investment grade, muni bond funds with 6.5-7 tax free payouts.
I'm thinking here that even if these things collapse another 10 or 15 percent, if you scale in, and you're collecting the coupon as you go, you have a pretty good chance of beating 3month t-bills in a year. Of course, if you belive the world is coming to an end, well, then t-bills are probablly the best choice.
Reply
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Mr. Fry, It is getting to be a case of looking forward to your annotated charts. Thank You ReplyFriday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Mr. Fry, It is getting to be a case of looking forward to your annotated charts. Thank You ReplyFriday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
"...shotguns, food and booze." I love it... Reply