Barclays Bank iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN (ERO)
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- General Discussion on ERO
- BoE Calls for Big Rate Cuts; Pound Could Suffer More [view article]
- Despite Lower Oil Inventories, Dollar Surges [view article]
- Dollar Retreats as Fed's Fisher Says GDP May Turn Negative [view article]
- Dollar in Consolidation Mode, Thanks to Home-Sales Data [view article]
- 3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
- Crude Inventories: Forex Effects of the Surprise Rise [view article]
- Russia: Beware the Bear [view article]
- Currency ETFs and ETNs [view article]
- Dollar Yields to a Slumping Market [view article]
- Is the Buck Really Back? [view article]
- A Chill Descends on Fannie, Freddie and the U.K. [view article]
- Reasons To Short the Euro [view article]
loading ...Recent ERO Articles
- BoE Calls for Big Rate Cuts; Pound Could Suffer More
- Despite Lower Oil Inventories, Dollar Surges
- ETF Update: Chiile, Dollar and Currencies, Transportation
- Dollar Retreats as Fed's Fisher Says GDP May Turn Negative
- Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook
- Dollar in Consolidation Mode, Thanks to Home-Sales Data
- Crude Inventories: Forex Effects of the Surprise Rise
- 3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally
- Dollar Yields to a Slumping Market
- Is the Buck Really Back?
- Full List of Articles »
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BoE Calls for Big Rate Cuts; Pound Could Suffer More [view article]
NOW, the richest dollar man in F.i.a.t. world is.....a paper boy from....Zimbabwe
Making 800 trillion million a week
Reply
BoE Calls for Big Rate Cuts; Pound Could Suffer More [view article]
The pound bubble has bursted ReplyDespite Lower Oil Inventories, Dollar Surges [view article]
Any USD surge is strictly TEMPORARY, and SHORT-LIVED. The dollar is destined for the junk heap. We are looking at $200-300 oil VERY soon. That, unfortunately, is CHEAP! How, you ask?1. $150 oil translates to about $0.22 cents per cup. What a bargain, right? Certainly. You can't get a decent cup of coffee for FIVE TIMES that!
2. Most of the world HAS BEEN paying the equivalent of $250-300 oil for years (approx $8 per gallon). Its not new.
3. Saudi Arabia is busting at the seams just trying to MEET their daily output of 9.5 million bbls daily. That figure has dropped 1 MILLION bbls daily since 2006. Without new discoveries, production is not likely to increase.
Forget the dollar....its withering away....try gold and silver.
Reply
ng
Dollar Retreats as Fed's Fisher Says GDP May Turn Negative [view article]
instead of daily FX stressgo to the bottom of this list,
dont look too much @ the screens,
spend more time on the beach
and live happy
Annual Monetary Supply Growth IQ 2008
M2 China 18,0%
M2 Russia 33,0%
M2 Indonesia 15,0%
M2 Norway 14,0%
M3 U.A.E. 38,0%
M3 Kuwait 23,0%
M3 India 22,5%
M3 Saudi Arabia 22,0%
M3 Denmark 22,0%
M3 Turkey 21,0%
M3 South Africa 21,0%
M3 Australia 20,0%
M3* est. U.S. 19,0%
M3 Venezuela 19,0%
M3 Brazil 17,0%
M3 Sweden 16,0%
M3 Republic of Korea 15,0%
M3 Poland 15,0%
M3 U.K. 14,0%
M3 Mexico 14,0%
M3 Canada 13,0%
M3 Singapore 12,0%
M3 E.U.-13 10,5%
M3 Japan 9,0%
M3 Switzerland 2,6%
Reply
Dollar Retreats as Fed's Fisher Says GDP May Turn Negative [view article]
So much for the noise, what is the trend? My fear is that the dollar is due to begin a long term decline due to the monetary policies indicated by the GSE crisis. Then we have the fiscal side which shows no signs of sobering up in time to avoid the dive over the cliff from further stimulus and of course deficit spending. Of course, Ben B has said that the "slow down" in the economy should beat out the inflation, so I suppose we are obligated to see if he is right. It is difficult to accept his postulates EXCEPT that the ECRI says its indicators point to the deepest recession for some 18 years. If that is true, will unemployment become the path to reduced demand and falling P/E? It could. A deep recession or worse would cool inflation, in fact, it might portent deflation. Grace if its not damned thing it is another. Good comment. ReplyDollar in Consolidation Mode, Thanks to Home-Sales Data [view article]
Grace, do you only look at currencies? Reply3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
you do realize that the dollar moved very fast upward. i have yet to hear any argument to support that rapid of movement which make sense.i believe the world banks moved in concert to re-price the dollar. end of story. Reply
3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
long term helps for usa: uaw is dying and race and gender and national origin quotas will eventually be outlawed. Reply3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
onzilla:seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Investors in the U.S. have responded positively to a firmer U.S. dollar, says Merrill Lynch North American economist David Rosenberg, but there is a darker side to the story.
Mr. Rosenberg said in a research note that the rising dollar has likely had an impact on commodity markets and the recent drop in oil prices, a situation that investors have welcomed. “There is no doubt that the decline in oil prices is good news from a margin-supporting standpoint, as well as helping put at least a tentative floor under consumer confidence levels,” he said. Mr. Rosenberg added that a decline in commodity prices and a stable–to-firm U.S. currency are bright developments – especially since they have contributed to lower inflation expectations.
However, he noted that one of the main reasons for the rise in the U.S. dollar is that economic conditions outside the U.S. have been deteriorating, with real GDP contracting in Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Hong Kong. “We also know that Canadian GDP contracted in the first quarter with little bounce in the second quarter.”
The economist noted, though, that the share of U.S. corporate profits dependent on the dollar and domestic demand overseas recently hit an all-time high of 25%. “This heavy reliance on the global economy, in turn, leaves the earnings outlook more vulnerable to shifts in economic conditions than ever before.”
It is conceivable, he added, that a global slowdown could see the foreign segment of U.S. profits decline by as much as 20% year-over-year. And with no clear indication that the U.S. housing and financials markets have bottomed in the U.S., "it’s a possibility that corporate profits could decline another 25-30% from here.”
“This isn’t our forecast, but we believe it is conceivable – and much more likely that the current consensus forecast of an increase of 23% for S&P 500 earnings.”
So maybe is DOES actually matter that the dollar rise is merely based on the dollar not sucking as bad as the Euro, and only so right now. Reply
3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
My advice, for what it is worth, is do the opposite to Kathy Lien and you should make a fortune. Kathy has been telling us for months that the dollar's fortunes are about to improve; unfortunately not so, the recent rally was a short term blip, the long term trend is still down against all major currencies apart from the pound sterling. The pound is about to continue its long-term decline, particularly against the dollar, while the Euro will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Euro short-term government bonds are therefore a good safe-haven for equity investors: wait patiently while the storm blows over. Reply3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
My advice, for what it is worth, is do the opposite to Kathy Lien and you should make a fortune. Kathy has been telling us for months that the dollar's fortunes are about to improve; unfortunately not so, the recent rally was a short term blip, the long term trend is still down against all major currencies apart from the pound sterling. The pound is about to continue its long-term decline, particularly against the dollar, while the Euro will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Euro short-term government bonds are therefore a good safe-haven for equity investors: wait patiently while the storm blows over. Reply3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
onzilla,I know what I don't know, too. And that's why I've been trying to get someone to answer the questions. I see that you didn't even attempt it, I wish you had, because I really want to know what the outlook is for the USD long term.
If your point regarding "market makers" is that there is so much trading in the dark pools that analysis of overall positions would be difficult, you may have a point. But I don't believe that the declaration of the "Protected-19&quo... wasn't timed to induce a short squeeze. I'm not that naive. Reply
Crude Inventories: Forex Effects of the Surprise Rise [view article]
You're pretty. Reply3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
"our fiat doesn't suck as bad as their fiat. Some cause for celebration!"Guess what... that is what makes currency markets move... don't like it? go buy some gold and sit on it.
"The dollar rally was triggered by timely intervention against an oversold condition. The market manipulators (I think they call them "Market Makers") have access to enough trading position information, in fact they have access to ALL of it now that it is computer-based, that it should be an easy feat for them to determine the size and timing of an intervention to induce a short squeeze."
Do you honestly think that there is a coordinated effort of what you call a 'market maker' to minipulate prices? you have obviouly never spend any time on a FX desk.
"intervention&quo... - what the heck are you talking about.. there has been no intervention (other than verbal) to support the USD.
what about the fact that the US earns roughly the same return on its FDI that the rest of the world earns on the FDI in the US? (mostly invested in goverment fixed income).
so to make a long story short, i am not saying i know what is going to happend with the EUR/USD fx rate. Purchasing Power Parity dynamics would have the EUR off by another 10-20%, but again.. that isn't a great way to trade currencies.
Bottom line, i know what i don't know - fx rates are largely a coin flip in the short / medium term. Take a look at the track record for any 'currency strategist' that employ the same 'sound' reasoning that you do. it sucks.
Reply
3 Things That Could Reverse the Dollar Rally [view article]
The dollar is way above its moving average, and as most know, the further it climbs the more it will fall. The points above are all well-taken, and you could also say what about the economy as a whole? Throw in Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, Poland's signature of the missile shield agreement, what's next for Ukraine, the election, oil? Markets are down 12-14% this year, so a catalyst is needed to get things back on track.As a (former) gold bug, it seems that the sentiment during pullbacks is that no cares about gold. It's these times when gold bugs get the jitters -- when the expectation is that gold will sky rocket, but people are not buying. This is a definite case of deflation: After significant money pumping from monetary policy by the Fed, money is pulled back and people cut their expenses (high gas prices are killing families), and there is significantly less buying. The big money also jumps somewhere else. What I would like to know is where is the money going. Yesterday if you tracked MTU (Mitsubishi Bank-->huge loans to China), TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor), YUM (global foods), they were all down significantly. This rules out money jumping to several example global stocks, although more detailed analysis is probably warranted. Maybe those with a crystal ball know the answer.
Reply