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- Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
- Home Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
- Stocks in REITs Climb High Despite Broader Real Estate Worries [view article]
- Commercial Real Estate Hits 7-Year Low [view article]
- 36-Month ETF Correlations with Russell 3000 [view article]
- NAR's Chief Economist: Totally Clueless [view article]
- Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
- Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away [view article]
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- The ‘No Direction’ Portfolio: S&P 500 Outperformance With Lower Volatility [view article]
- Declines from Peaks in Housing Show Big Disparity [view article]
- June Case-Shiller Housing Numbers [view article]
Recent ICF Articles
- Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud
- Home Prices See Record Declines in July
- Stocks in REITs Climb High Despite Broader Real Estate Worries
- Commercial Real Estate Hits 7-Year Low
- NAR's Chief Economist: Totally Clueless
- Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break?
- Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away
- Declines from Peaks in Housing Show Big Disparity
- June Case-Shiller Housing Numbers
- Housing Futures Show Signs of Life
- Full List of Articles »
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Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
I agree that CRE has some pain to face ahead. There will be a correction in values as lenders push LTV's lower and the consumer continues to be weak. Many REIT's are highly leveraged with short term debt. However, alot of these loans will not come due in the coming year. It is risky to be long REITs, but I feel that equity traders will oversell this sector. Do not get me wrong, I am bullish on REITs at their values traded this past week. I do not believe they will return to their 2007 values anytime soon nor will I be a buyer if they continue to rebound as they did late Friday. ReplyTime to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
Equity's point is worth repeating. Being a industry insider, it seems to me that everyone forgot that the RE in REIT stands for REAL ESTATE.The industry both in the US and internationally became driven by people who know next-to-nothing about real estate, and only focused on the idea that highly-leveraged, cash flowing (at the time) assets are a good thing. When it comes to actually managing the future of the properties and understanding the credit risk, they are clueless. Reply
No Clue
Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
Equity folks still do not understand credit or capital structures.U.S. REITs are trading at extremely high valuations in light of a closed credit market and the beginning of the financial recession spilling into the real economy. There is a lag effect. Commercial real estate is yet another shoe to drop.
Buy companies with clean balance sheets that do no not need a robust credit market to grow. There is no need to be a hero on theses stocks.
Whoever wrote this may look smart for the quick equity pop given last weeks movement but longer term fundamentals will dominate.
Equity heads... please learn credit analysis and capital structures or you will be toast in this tape. You guys still do not get it. Reply
No Clue
Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
Equity folks still do not understand credit or capital structures.U.S. REITs are trading at extremely high valuations in light of a closed credit market and the beginning of the financial recession spilling into the real economy. There is a lag effect. Commercial real estate is yet another shoe to drop.
Buy companies with clean balance sheets that do no not need a robust credit market to grow. There is no need to be a hero on theses stocks.
Whoever wrote this may look smart for the quick equity pop given last weeks movement but longer term fundamentals will dominate.
Equity heads... please learn credit analysis and capital structures or you will be toast in this tape. You guys still do not get it. Reply
Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
It seems to me that you have forgotten about mark to market accounting which will impact those formerly strong appreciation figures. There will be a time for REIT's but not for a couple of years, IMO and at a much lower price. ReplyTime to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
I recently sold off my bear position in REITs and bought URE. It may not be a good comparison but URE is trading at close to the same price as XHB, which tracks homebuilders. This tells me that URE is oversold or XHB is overbought. Commercial real estate will recover before residential so I am long URE at these prices. ReplyTime to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
Great information, Central America is another sweet spot.Best,
Thomas
realtyexecutivescentra... Reply
Home Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
HI ReplyHome Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
Bottom: Not before the end of 2011. This thing is so BIG that folks are letting hopes get in the way of insight. Not before the end of 2011. And I still think that by the time the bottom is in, a lot of homes will have lost upwards of 50% of their formerly inflated prices. ReplyHome Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
"Ok, so I'll call the bottom: We're about halfway there. "It's a little scary...but I agree. Reply
Home Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
Ok, so I'll call the bottom: We're about halfway there. ReplyHome Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
Without any insult to the intentions of the writer of the article:House prices should never be compared month to month or quarter to quarter. Housing has strong components in both prices and volumes sold.
For example:
Students mostly move in the Summer, farmers mostly in the Winter.
When you look at detailed graphs you see some sine curve combined with a trend curve; this goes both for prices and volumes sold.
So you must compare monthly figures with those of a year ago.
In case you want to see what is happening on a month to month basis you act as follows:
Compare August year on year figures with July year on year figures.
In that case the seasonaly component if filtered out...
Therefore moorer11 is completely right! Reply
Home Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
"The news is not all bad, however. Overall declines have actually slowed in home prices in the most recent three-month period."It's not apparent to me that this is terribly relevant, as the home values are substantially seasonal, and the most recent three-month period just reflects this seasonal strength. The record year over year decline tells the real story. Those declines have to get smaller before any "not bad news" can be declared... Reply
Stocks in REITs Climb High Despite Broader Real Estate Worries [view article]
I see that one of the top holdings is ProLogis (PLD). You'll think I'm crzay but I think it is seriously overleveraged and will be the next Lehman. I've done a comprehensive analysis at my blog. I'd love to get your candid review of my analysis. ReplyNo Clue
Stocks in REITs Climb High Despite Broader Real Estate Worries [view article]
Let's see how they will be able to continue growing earnings with tighter credit and a slowing economy.And I hate to break it to you Chris but the economy runs on credit. There is a lag effect on growth. It will be come more apparent over time and the historically low P/E ratio uber bulls point to will look lower since the cost of capital will be higher and the growth rate lower, if not negative.
In the short term, cheer on the Paulson Plan and get giddy. We rallly and then will wake up with a hang over.
Again. Reply