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- General Discussion on IYE
- Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
- Sector Relative Strength: Energy and Financials [view article]
- Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
- The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful [view article]
- Checking In on the All-ETF Portfolio [view article]
- P/E Ratio & Estimated Earnings Growth for S&P Sectors [view article]
- Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
- Sector Relative Strength: Energy and Financials [view article]
- Crude Reality: Big Oil's Purposely Restricting Supply [view article]
- Insiders Preparing for Major Drop in Oil Prices [view article]
- Stocks Covered by The Energy Stock Blog [view article]
- Energy Sector Declines [view article]
loading ...Recent IYE Articles
- Sector Relative Strength: Energy and Financials
- Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy
- Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel?
- Sector Relative Strength: Energy and Financials
- Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors
- Checking In on the All-ETF Portfolio
- Crude Reality: Big Oil's Purposely Restricting Supply
- Insiders Preparing for Major Drop in Oil Prices
- Energy Sector Declines
- Oil and Energy Stock Correlation
- Full List of Articles »
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Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
Oil prices are behaving normally. Everyone is always looking for conspiracy theories.Greatest demand and highest prices are in the heating months and summer driving months: Dec thru Feb and May thru July.
August and September have generally had low oil prices, since the summer driving season is ebbing and heating demands are very low.
Reply
Sector Relative Strength: Energy and Financials [view article]
With the impending collapse of an AIG, WAMU, LEH, or other BK candidates, the only place to be is short or cash at this point. ReplyWill Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
I agree with most of what 'mangolfer' states... The one point that I have an issue with is that oil inventories are very tight and it doesn't take much of an issue to push prices one way or the other. Couple that with a hyper-kinetic ADHD style market and you have extreme reactions to relatively small changes.I'd also like to point out that although this article and the following comments may be true of oil, I think that coal is a different story.
jegan ;-) Reply
Sector Relative Strength: Energy and Financials [view article]
"The more likely explanation, however, is that nothing moves in a straight line......f energy stocks are in the beginning of a long-term downtrend, you can expect to see several short term rallies."Thank you! It made absolutely no sense that the market **just woke up** and noticed the issues between the US and Russia....
Similarly, at the third week of every month, the newscasters seem amazed that the market is in turmoil.... Helloooooo... Options expirations....
jegan ;-) Reply
Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
Maybe Paul is on to something - instead of charting and technical analysis, perhaps we should start praying to the animal spirits, building animistic totems in our living rooms, etc. Then again, probably not. ReplyWill Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
The article misses the most consistent sources of rising demand - the oil exporters, where prices are often far below world prices.With supply broadly static for the last 3 years (extraction has exceeded new discoveries for around 30 years) and rising demand in the exporters that will mean less available for export regardless of China and India.
Exports from other major areas like Mexico and Venezuela is collapsing already, and ramping up in other areas is by no means taking its place. Reply
Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
Paul, The so-called bear is starting to back away. That's called fundamentals. miki ReplyCommodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
Trading is not about oscillators,it all have no meaning and never anybody using technical analysis made money long term.When bear enters the pit on NYMEX blood spills on the trading floor.
Every bull/bear market has it's place in history,today bear rules energies,metals pits.Leave him alone he came from long (10years) sleep,he is hungry for money,bull is tired counting losses (who of you bought and still long gold/silver futures or mining stocks since 1998-2000).Most of you enetred the pit when bear was already eating bulls steaks. Reply
_me_Al
Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
Mangolfer, thank you, thank you, thank you.Why can't CNBC also point out the obvious? Reply
Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
From another SA article about China consumptionWhere I find flaw in this China-Olympics theory is that the media makes it out to be that there are only two consumers in the world of crude: the U.S and China. Everyone says that this decrease in demand is thanks to the slow down in China to clean up the air before the Olympics. Did everyone forget that the rest of the world, including emerging markets like Russia, Brazil, and India, have NOT slowed down because of the Olympics? To add, China did not close down production countrywide, but only in Beijing and a few other small factory and port cities. Beijing is less than 2% (1.7% by my math in 2007) of China's GDP.
While the rest of the world (92% of energy consumption) continues to consume at its pre-Olympic pace, oil has fallen $35. Yet, CNBC won't stop talking about the impending hurricane of demand that will come from China. I disagree.
As I have already said, most of China is still consuming at its pre-Olympic pace too.
Let's do a little guestimation: China accounts for 8% of world oil consumption (1/3 as much as the U.S). Let's say that Beijing consumption has slowed 50% (it didn't). By limiting traffic, it is estimated that only 1/3 of the 3.3 million vehicles will stay off the road daily. Non-discretionary consumption should stay flat. So, 2% of 8% is 0.16% of world consumption, or approximately 138K barrels a day of consumptions. Going back to our 50% decrease in consumption number, Beijing purposely decreased its Beijing consumption by 69K barrels a day. There goes the ramping up thesis. 40 factories here and there don't significantly raise that number in the context of world supply.
My point is that China's actions have not significantly, or even marginally, cut demand. However, in the same time frame, Crude Oil has fallen from $148 to $113. To say that the slowdown in China is because of the Olympics is a canard. Furthermore, China has curtailed gasoline demand by raising prices 17% in late June and OPEC has increased supplies.
The Chinese tried very hard to piece together their country before the world arrived. It is arguable that the super spike we saw in oil was because China tried to complete in months what they should have built in years. Now, I will argue that progress (and consumption) will slow from here. Growth tends to slow post Olympics in host countries.
Reply
Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
Millions of cars in China will be back on the roads and factories around Beijing will return to production after the Olympics are over and the restrictions on air-polluting activities are lifted. China demand will go up again. OPEC is talking about cutting production to keep prices higher. Oil will not see sub $100 again. Ever. ReplyThe 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful [view article]
Once again:We will never run out of oil until the core of the earth is cold and dead.
Manmade Global warming is not a problem. The earth is covered with oceans which absorb any excess before it has a chance to accumulate.
Http://frostic.com/co2andglob... Reply
Payton
Checking In on the All-ETF Portfolio [view article]
Delta,Thanks for the link to the article. I never would have come to the conclusion that the dealings we do here have such a STRONG impact on business abroad. In relation to S&P500, my favorite ETFs for diversification, ADRE and EEM have an r of no less than .6 over the last five years. Thats quite a pitiful performance. However, as a nonactive trader, I still like the idea of global markets ETFs for my portfolio purposes, and Geoff's article and the comments that ensue, are quite helpful and entertaining.
On Aug 04 05:21 PM Delta David wrote:
> Emerging Markets = Diversification? www.indexuniverse.com/...
>
>
> Alisha you might want to read that article before adding Emerging
> Markets for purposes of diversification. Reply
manager
P/E Ratio & Estimated Earnings Growth for S&P Sectors [view article]
wondering how all sector earnings significantly below the total S&P500 earnings? should the S&P500 earnings be close to the weighted sector earnings? ReplyCrude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
mekats: they are recommendations going forward. you seem to believe the energy stocks are down alot more this year than the S&P500 or the DJIA or some other "diversified"... equity play. they aren't. my point is, the fundamentals behind oil and energy haven't changed to be bearish, if anything, i believe they are more bullish now than at the start of the year. COP is down less than the S&P this year, as is vanguard energy. i think it will be helpful if you got something like barrons, the WSJ, or investors daily and looked at the YTD, 5yr, and 10yr returns to compare the investments. Reply