iShares Dow Jones US Basic Materials (IYM)

All Comments on IYM

  • commenter
    poet1
    Oct 03 09:06 AM
    Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
    anyone know how far out banks do profit projections? calculations on what percentage of people will default? i assume its at least 50 yrs? don't they know what to expect? PS-SRS is doing GREAT Reply
  • commenter
    Dr
    Divergence
    Sep 29 03:53 PM
    My Website
    Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
    Thanks. Great answer, and I agree with you. Reply
  • commenter
    Richard Shaw
    Sep 29 02:17 PM
    My Website
    Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
    Dr. Divergence:

    This is uncharted territory. Closest example may be the INP exhange traded note from Barclays that stopped issuing creation units when India temporarily stopped certain foreign investments. That went way out of wack.

    In this case the instruments used to fund the inverse fund are most likely of definite term, except for their actual stock shorts. The derivatives will expire and the fund will become less short. Until the next report, we won't know how many if any actual stock shorts they have.

    Absent actual stock shorts the fund assets will be in run-off and would eventually be all cash or government debt instruments. In a rational world, the price would approach the NAV in that case.

    The expectations for future actions by Congress would probably be key, but I have no idea what those actions would be or how the market would respond.

    Today when the bailout vote failed the SPY was off nearly 7%.

    SKF is up 18+% as of the moment with nearly 16 million volume. XLF is down 11+% with 52 million volume, so the 2x leverage is approximately working for the moment.     Reply
  • commenter
    Dr
    Divergence
    Sep 29 01:29 PM
    My Website
    Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
    Point taken, Richard. Good article. Do you have any views about the tracking error issue in SKF et al now that they are unable to issue new creation units due to the short ban? Reply
  • commenter
    Richard Shaw
    Sep 29 01:21 PM
    My Website
    Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
    Dr Divergence

    I said it "exposes" short investor to interest. That is meant to convey that interest "could" be a factor if the trade goes against the investor to create a margin call.

    The point is correct about the "potential" for interest cost, which is not a potential cost with a non-margined long position in an inverse fund.     Reply
  • commenter
    Dr
    Divergence
    Sep 29 12:58 PM
    My Website
    Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
    Your point #6 is factually incorrect. No interest is paid on a short sale. The sale takes place in a margin account and the short SALE generates a free credit in the account. Generally the broker will credit the short selling customer with somewhere from 50% to 70% of the interest earned on the free credit, subject to negotiation based on account size, trading frequency etc. Reply
  • commenter
    DrBohica
    Jul 18 04:34 PM
    ETF Update: Materials, Semiconductors, Homebuilders [view article]
    I don't know any "sector rotation" practitioners who can beat the all-sectored S&P 500 over time. Would be interested in hearing all about some successful sector switchers because even the big name guys like Sam haven't beaten the market over any meaningful stretch. Reply
  • commenter
    Geoff
    Considine
    Jul 04 07:12 PM
    My Website
    Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
    Jonathan:

    As I say in the article--three years of trailing data is what I use. As far as getting rid of an under-performing sector, that will require study beyond QPP. The Financial sector is a great example. I have been very light on financials since well before the meltdown. I own some BAC, though, and it has gotten pounded. I am neither selling nor buying more. I invest for the long term and that is really what QPP is designed to help with. Over periods of less than a year, momentum tends to dominate--as I have discussed in some articles.

    Personally, I do my homework up front and then I tend to get in for the long haul. I do not try to time my major investments in terms of selling out when they are down. When I am adding money, I will use data such as these to help provide ideas for sectors to look at.

    The difference between under-valued and distressed is also apparent if you look at projected risk levels...

    Geoff     Reply
  • commenter
    Jonathan
    Sheinkop
    Jun 29 02:17 PM
    Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
    Geoff,
    Thank you for your uniquely academic approach. Can you be more specific in the length of the trailing time frames you use? As well, how often you look to make a change to a long term portfolio if a sector has just become a lead anchor? As you mention there is a difference between undervalued and distressed so when are you making your decision and acting upon it?

    Thanks,

    Jonathan     Reply
  • commenter
    JSeabold
    Jun 25 02:24 PM
    Primary US Sector ETFs [view article]
    What about iShares DJ US Tech (IYW)? Reply
  • commenter
    Roudy
    Jun 23 02:19 PM
    ETF Update: Is It Time for Inverse Index Positions? [view article]
    I appreciate all the good information I get from you and Seeking Alpha but I've now decided at my age of 65 years to leave all this to my mutual fund company to figure out. I still read this blog with much interest. Keep up the good work. RoudMan Reply
  • commenter
    Traveller
    Jun 19 01:14 AM
    ETF Update: Is There Any Place Left to Invest? [view article]
    Saw the German ENVIRONMENT Minister today defending German development of new coal-fired power plants. At the same time, he was saying they hoped to close down all the remaining nuclear plants in Germany in the next 5 years.
    Go long KOL, and short NLR.     Reply
  • commenter
    Bear Stocks
    Report
    Jun 16 11:16 AM
    My Website
    ETF Update: Is There Any Place Left to Invest? [view article]
    KOL certainly looks like a buy as do coal stocks like PCX, ANR and MEE. Reply
  • commenter
    MarketRiders
    Jun 05 06:03 PM
    My Website
    Why the S&P SmallCap Index Consistently Beats the Russell 2000 [view article]
    Kevin -- if you do your own chart over a number of years, the data is indisputable. Of course if someone is trying to time the market, my conclusion is moot. But for those of us who want long term exposure to the small cap asset class with periodic rebalancing, I don't know why anyone would use a Russell index. Reply
  • commenter
    Bear Stocks
    Report
    Jun 04 11:45 AM
    My Website
    Why the S&P SmallCap Index Consistently Beats the Russell 2000 [view article]
    This is very useful information for the buy & hold investor. Thanks for sharing. Reply
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