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Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Based on PE, is the S&P 500 cheap, or merely back to historically "average" PE?based on Schiller's data, since 1881, statistics on the S&P 500 PE:
average, 1/1871-8/2008: 16.3
median, 1/1871-8/2008: 15.7
level as of 10/7/08, with S&P 500 near 996: 16.3
note: Schiller uses the trailing ten-year average earnings when he calculates the PE ratio
the series:
month PE
1881.01 18.47
1881.02 18.15
1881.03 18.27
1881.04 17.95
1881.05 18.87
1881.06 19.03
1881.07 18.12
1881.08 17.29
1881.09 16.72
1881.10 16.26
1881.11 16.48
1881.12 15.96
1882.01 15.68
1882.02 15.15
1882.03 15.09
1882.04 14.92
1882.05 14.57
1882.06 14.33
1882.07 15.24
1882.08 15.53
1882.09 16.08
1882.10 15.76
1882.11 15.19
1882.12 15.38
1883.01 15.27
1883.02 14.76
1883.03 15.05
1883.04 15.48
1883.05 15.34
1883.06 15.90
1883.07 15.95
1883.08 15.20
1883.09 15.49
1883.10 15.05
1883.11 15.41
1883.12 14.90
1884.01 14.43
1884.02 14.81
1884.03 14.74
1884.04 14.35
1884.05 13.47
1884.06 12.91
1884.07 13.04
1884.08 13.86
1884.09 13.57
1884.10 13.27
1884.11 13.30
1884.12 13.43
1885.01 13.13
1885.02 13.38
1885.03 13.73
1885.04 13.55
1885.05 13.71
1885.06 13.98
1885.07 14.33
1885.08 15.13
1885.09 15.12
1885.10 15.99
1885.11 16.82
1885.12 16.30
1886.01 16.69
1886.02 17.01
1886.03 16.84
1886.04 16.80
1886.05 16.86
1886.06 17.83
1886.07 17.85
1886.08 17.72
1886.09 18.15
1886.10 18.56
1886.11 18.97
1886.12 18.19
1887.01 17.51
1887.02 17.13
1887.03 17.47
1887.04 17.82
1887.05 18.08
1887.06 17.71
1887.07 17.43
1887.08 16.74
1887.09 16.68
1887.10 15.88
1887.11 15.95
1887.12 15.46
1888.01 15.36
1888.02 15.42
1888.03 14.81
1888.04 15.02
1888.05 15.39
1888.06 15.08
1888.07 15.28
1888.08 15.60
1888.09 15.99
1888.10 15.72
1888.11 15.22
1888.12 14.95
1889.01 15.80
1889.02 16.19
1889.03 16.07
1889.04 16.05
1889.05 16.92
1889.06 17.22
1889.07 16.89
1889.08 17.13
1889.09 17.35
1889.10 17.05
1889.11 16.91
1889.12 16.61
1890.01 17.22
1890.02 17.03
1890.03 16.90
1890.04 17.26
1890.05 17.79
1890.06 17.68
1890.07 17.59
1890.08 16.60
1890.09 16.17
1890.10 15.48
1890.11 14.75
1890.12 14.44
1891.01 15.43
1891.02 15.48
1891.03 15.05
1891.04 15.41
1891.05 15.57
1891.06 15.66
1891.07 15.62
1891.08 16.16
1891.09 17.71
1891.10 17.72
1891.11 17.67
1891.12 18.21
1892.01 19.02
1892.02 19.04
1892.03 19.74
1892.04 19.94
1892.05 19.91
1892.06 19.77
1892.07 19.21
1892.08 19.20
1892.09 18.69
1892.10 19.04
1892.11 18.46
1892.12 18.01
1893.01 17.66
1893.02 17.13
1893.03 16.90
1893.04 17.10
1893.05 15.78
1893.06 15.42
1893.07 14.35
1893.08 14.59
1893.09 15.01
1893.10 15.27
1893.11 15.94
1893.12 15.61
1894.01 15.74
1894.02 16.20
1894.03 17.19
1894.04 17.43
1894.05 16.81
1894.06 16.61
1894.07 16.29
1894.08 16.46
1894.09 16.52
1894.10 16.50
1894.11 16.54
1894.12 16.67
1895.01 16.52
1895.02 16.33
1895.03 16.36
1895.04 16.39
1895.05 17.08
1895.06 17.21
1895.07 17.55
1895.08 18.07
1895.09 18.20
1895.10 17.94
1895.11 17.34
1895.12 16.55
1896.01 16.58
1896.02 17.52
1896.03 17.23
1896.04 17.64
1896.05 17.83
1896.06 17.78
1896.07 16.64
1896.08 15.70
1896.09 16.54
1896.10 16.44
1896.11 17.09
1896.12 16.50
1897.01 17.03
1897.02 16.89
1897.03 16.96
1897.04 16.70
1897.05 17.05
1897.06 17.85
1897.07 18.65
1897.08 19.01
1897.09 19.37
1897.10 19.03
1897.11 18.36
1897.12 18.75
1898.01 19.25
1898.02 18.92
1898.03 18.04
1898.04 17.71
1898.05 17.60
1898.06 19.54
1898.07 19.86
1898.08 20.54
1898.09 20.44
1898.10 19.95
1898.11 20.53
1898.12 21.40
1899.01 22.93
1899.02 23.05
1899.03 23.28
1899.04 23.15
1899.05 22.09
1899.06 21.21
1899.07 21.56
1899.08 21.73
1899.09 20.59
1899.10 20.15
1899.11 20.20
1899.12 18.51
1900.01 18.67
1900.02 18.70
1900.03 18.78
1900.04 18.94
1900.05 18.40
1900.06 17.99
1900.07 17.69
1900.08 18.07
1900.09 17.34
1900.10 18.10
1900.11 19.42
1900.12 20.74
1901.01 20.98
1901.02 21.68
1901.03 22.35
1901.04 24.41
1901.05 23.06
1901.06 25.24
1901.07 23.14
1901.08 23.08
1901.09 22.59
1901.10 22.25
1901.11 22.38
1901.12 21.68
1902.01 22.34
1902.02 22.46
1902.03 22.41
1902.04 22.82
1902.05 22.43
1902.06 21.96
1902.07 22.39
1902.08 23.17
1902.09 22.86
1902.10 20.60
1902.11 20.41
1902.12 19.63
1903.01 20.32
1903.02 20.11
1903.03 19.88
1903.04 18.98
1903.05 18.95
1903.06 17.82
1903.07 16.92
1903.08 16.30
1903.09 15.65
1903.10 15.25
1903.11 15.41
1903.12 16.04
1904.01 15.86
1904.02 15.02
1904.03 15.08
1904.04 15.57
1904.05 15.53
1904.06 15.47
1904.07 16.04
1904.08 16.30
1904.09 16.74
1904.10 17.63
1904.11 18.08
1904.12 18.16
1905.01 18.46
1905.02 19.17
1905.03 19.83
1905.04 19.48
1905.05 18.63
1905.06 18.74
1905.07 19.21
1905.08 19.57
1905.09 19.74
1905.10 19.90
1905.11 19.44
1905.12 19.58
1906.01 20.13
1906.02 19.87
1906.03 19.26
1906.04 18.88
1906.05 18.05
1906.06 18.17
1906.07 18.20
1906.08 18.97
1906.09 19.20
1906.10 18.10
1906.11 18.14
1906.12 17.66
1907.01 17.22
1907.02 16.22
1907.03 14.69
1907.04 14.67
1907.05 13.79
1907.06 13.14
1907.07 13.59
1907.08 12.51
1907.09 12.33
1907.10 10.83
1907.11 10.59
1907.12 11.33
1908.01 11.90
1908.02 11.55
1908.03 11.98
1908.04 12.45
1908.05 13.08
1908.06 13.05
1908.07 13.35
1908.08 13.88
1908.09 13.70
1908.10 13.69
1908.11 14.44
1908.12 14.58
1909.01 14.76
1909.02 14.17
1909.03 14.34
1909.04 14.65
1909.05 14.95
1909.06 15.04
1909.07 15.23
1909.08 15.42
1909.09 15.25
1909.10 14.99
1909.11 14.75
1909.12 14.75
1910.01 14.55
1910.02 14.00
1910.03 14.05
1910.04 13.56
1910.05 13.57
1910.06 13.02
1910.07 12.34
1910.08 12.75
1910.09 12.94
1910.10 13.92
1910.11 14.16
1910.12 13.74
1911.01 14.05
1911.02 14.72
1911.03 14.37
1911.04 14.75
1911.05 15.05
1911.06 15.33
1911.07 15.08
1911.08 13.90
1911.09 13.00
1911.10 13.07
1911.11 13.73
1911.12 13.93
1912.01 13.79
1912.02 13.53
1912.03 13.64
1912.04 13.65
1912.05 13.65
1912.06 13.79
1912.07 13.80
1912.08 13.98
1912.09 13.93
1912.10 13.91
1912.11 13.75
1912.12 13.39
1913.01 13.15
1913.02 12.68
1913.03 12.44
1913.04 12.43
1913.05 12.22
1913.06 11.49
1913.07 11.53
1913.08 11.85
1913.09 11.84
1913.10 11.47
1913.11 11.07
1913.12 11.17
1914.01 11.64
1914.02 11.91
1914.03 11.69
1914.04 11.52
1914.05 11.48
1914.06 11.43
1914.07 10.69
1914.08 10.49
1914.09 10.50
1914.10 10.61
1914.11 10.52
1914.12 10.17
1915.01 10.36
1915.02 10.33
1915.03 10.71
1915.04 11.40
1915.05 11.03
1915.06 11.15
1915.07 11.11
1915.08 11.58
1915.09 12.01
1915.10 12.55
1915.11 12.86
1915.12 12.88
1916.01 12.54
1916.02 12.35
1916.03 12.18
1916.04 11.91
1916.05 12.03
1916.06 12.00
1916.07 11.79
1916.08 11.73
1916.09 11.94
1916.10 12.05
1916.11 12.05
1916.12 11.41
1917.01 10.99
1917.02 10.06
1917.03 10.33
1917.04 9.64
1917.05 9.14
1917.06 9.15
1917.07 9.00
1917.08 8.57
1917.09 7.95
1917.10 7.39
1917.11 6.75
1917.12 6.41
1918.01 6.64
1918.02 6.78
1918.03 6.69
1918.04 6.52
1918.05 6.58
1918.06 6.50
1918.07 6.37
1918.08 6.30
1918.09 6.15
1918.10 6.29
1918.11 6.33
1918.12 6.13
1919.01 6.10
1919.02 6.24
1919.03 6.36
1919.04 6.46
1919.05 6.83
1919.06 7.02
1919.07 7.05
1919.08 6.48
1919.09 6.56
1919.10 6.79
1919.11 6.47
1919.12 6.16
1920.01 5.99
1920.02 5.46
1920.03 5.80
1920.04 5.60
1920.05 5.19
1920.06 5.04
1920.07 5.08
1920.08 5.02
1920.09 5.30
1920.10 5.35
1920.11 5.13
1920.12 4.78
1921.01 5.12
1921.02 5.27
1921.03 5.19
1921.04 5.30
1921.05 5.61
1921.06 5.22
1921.07 5.20
1921.08 5.16
1921.09 5.38
1921.10 5.48
1921.11 5.84
1921.12 6.11
1922.01 6.29
1922.02 6.46
1922.03 6.82
1922.04 7.27
1922.05 7.59
1922.06 7.56
1922.07 7.60
1922.08 8.02
1922.09 8.27
1922.10 8.43
1922.11 8.00
1922.12 7.96
1923.01 8.15
1923.02 8.53
1923.03 8.70
1923.04 8.37
1923.05 8.00
1923.06 7.67
1923.07 7.35
1923.08 7.44
1923.09 7.46
1923.10 7.32
1923.11 7.55
1923.12 7.81
1924.01 8.07
1924.02 8.16
1924.03 8.06
1924.04 7.92
1924.05 7.90
1924.06 8.05
1924.07 8.38
1924.08 8.72
1924.09 8.58
1924.10 8.42
1924.11 8.89
1924.12 9.31
1925.01 9.69
1925.02 9.83
1925.03 9.52
1925.04 9.48
1925.05 9.73
1925.06 9.80
1925.07 9.96
1925.08 10.11
1925.09 10.36
1925.10 10.72
1925.11 10.89
1925.12 11.15
1926.01 11.34
1926.02 11.39
1926.03 10.71
1926.04 10.40
1926.05 10.58
1926.06 11.20
1926.07 11.87
1926.08 12.49
1926.09 12.69
1926.10 12.43
1926.11 12.62
1926.12 13.01
1927.01 13.19
1927.02 13.63
1927.03 14.03
1927.04 14.49
1927.05 15.00
1927.06 15.12
1927.07 15.82
1927.08 16.86
1927.09 17.82
1927.10 17.54
1927.11 18.13
1927.12 18.65
1928.01 18.81
1928.02 18.87
1928.03 19.94
1928.04 21.26
1928.05 21.83
1928.06 20.91
1928.07 21.08
1928.08 21.76
1928.09 23.00
1928.10 23.58
1928.11 25.12
1928.12 25.30
1929.01 27.08
1929.02 27.13
1929.03 27.68
1929.04 27.57
1929.05 27.70
1929.06 27.94
1929.07 29.93
1929.08 31.48
1929.09 32.56
1929.10 28.96
1929.11 21.17
1929.12 22.01
1930.01 22.31
1930.02 23.70
1930.03 24.59
1930.04 25.84
1930.05 24.31
1930.06 21.87
1930.07 21.55
1930.08 21.30
1930.09 21.07
1930.10 18.21
1930.11 16.94
1930.12 16.06
1931.01 16.71
1931.02 18.16
1931.03 18.58
1931.04 16.87
1931.05 15.40
1931.06 15.06
1931.07 15.52
1931.08 15.01
1931.09 12.82
1931.10 11.15
1931.11 11.42
1931.12 9.31
1932.01 9.31
1932.02 9.34
1932.03 9.41
1932.04 7.19
1932.05 6.39
1932.06 5.57
1932.07 5.84
1932.08 8.83
1932.09 9.76
1932.10 8.48
1932.11 8.46
1932.12 8.26
1933.01 8.73
1933.02 7.83
1933.03 7.87
1933.04 8.72
1933.05 11.25
1933.06 13.10
1933.07 13.75
1933.08 13.00
1933.09 12.92
1933.10 11.70
1933.11 12.01
1933.12 12.28
1934.01 13.03
1934.02 13.93
1934.03 13.25
1934.04 13.52
1934.05 12.18
1934.06 12.29
1934.07 11.74
1934.08 11.32
1934.09 10.91
1934.10 11.11
1934.11 11.45
1934.12 11.64
1935.01 11.50
1935.02 11.09
1935.03 10.40
1935.04 11.10
1935.05 11.99
1935.06 12.54
1935.07 13.20
1935.08 14.11
1935.09 14.42
1935.10 14.83
1935.11 16.13
1935.12 16.16
1936.01 17.09
1936.02 18.10
1936.03 18.66
1936.04 18.72
1936.05 17.75
1936.06 18.39
1936.07 19.36
1936.08 19.62
1936.09 19.86
1936.10 20.91
1936.11 21.50
1936.12 21.13
1937.01 21.62
1937.02 22.24
1937.03 22.04
1937.04 20.56
1937.05 19.47
1937.06 18.71
1937.07 19.65
1937.08 19.81
1937.09 16.85
1937.10 14.36
1937.11 13.16
1937.12 13.01
1938.01 13.51
1938.02 13.26
1938.03 12.38
1938.04 11.79
1938.05 11.99
1938.06 12.29
1938.07 14.77
1938.08 14.90
1938.09 14.28
1938.10 16.06
1938.11 16.15
1938.12 15.76
1939.01 15.60
1939.02 15.66
1939.03 15.73
1939.04 13.92
1939.05 14.50
1939.06 14.83
1939.07 15.27
1939.08 15.12
1939.09 16.45
1939.10 16.82
1939.11 16.60
1939.12 16.28
1940.01 16.38
1940.02 16.22
1940.03 16.17
1940.04 16.37
1940.05 14.14
1940.06 12.84
1940.07 13.37
1940.08 13.65
1940.09 14.21
1940.10 14.33
1940.11 14.64
1940.12 13.91
1941.01 13.90
1941.02 13.00
1941.03 12.96
1941.04 12.43
1941.05 12.04
1941.06 12.16
1941.07 12.74
1941.08 12.46
1941.09 12.28
1941.10 11.58
1941.11 10.91
1941.12 10.09
1942.01 10.10
1942.02 9.68
1942.03 9.00
1942.04 8.54
1942.05 8.51
1942.06 8.91
1942.07 9.15
1942.08 9.01
1942.09 9.08
1942.10 9.60
1942.11 9.66
1942.12 9.62
1943.01 10.15
1943.02 10.71
1943.03 10.85
1943.04 11.04
1943.05 11.36
1943.06 11.52
1943.07 11.77
1943.08 11.21
1943.09 11.34
1943.10 11.19
1943.11 10.63
1943.12 10.74
1944.01 11.05
1944.02 10.95
1944.03 11.22
1944.04 10.94
1944.05 11.10
1944.06 11.53
1944.07 11.74
1944.08 11.54
1944.09 11.33
1944.10 11.58
1944.11 11.48
1944.12 11.64
1945.01 11.96
1945.02 12.34
1945.03 12.32
1945.04 12.63
1945.05 13.04
1945.06 13.13
1945.07 12.87
1945.08 12.92
1945.09 13.80
1945.10 14.37
1945.11 14.85
1945.12 15.02
1946.01 15.62
1946.02 15.76
1946.03 15.13
1946.04 16.04
1946.05 16.01
1946.06 15.77
1946.07 14.51
1946.08 13.98
1946.09 11.84
1946.10 11.39
1946.11 11.11
1946.12 11.37
1947.01 11.47
1947.02 11.95
1947.03 11.29
1947.04 10.90
1947.05 10.73
1947.06 11.08
1947.07 11.70
1947.08 11.34
1947.09 10.83
1947.10 11.13
1947.11 10.98
1947.12 10.68
1948.01 10.42
1948.02 10.00
1948.03 10.19
1948.04 10.78
1948.05 11.24
1948.06 11.58
1948.07 11.13
1948.08 10.72
1948.09 10.55
1948.10 10.83
1948.11 10.25
1948.12 10.16
1949.01 10.25
1949.02 9.87
1949.03 9.90
1949.04 9.78
1949.05 9.69
1949.06 9.07
1949.07 9.61
1949.08 9.85
1949.09 9.88
1949.10 10.17
1949.11 10.22
1949.12 10.53
1950.01 10.75
1950.02 10.91
1950.03 10.91
1950.04 11.18
1950.05 11.46
1950.06 11.55
1950.07 10.54
1950.08 11.04
1950.09 11.34
1950.10 11.66
1950.11 11.54
1950.12 11.31
1951.01 11.90
1951.02 12.14
1951.03 11.84
1951.04 11.95
1951.05 11.86
1951.06 11.62
1951.07 11.78
1951.08 12.26
1951.09 12.44
1951.10 12.31
1951.11 11.85
1951.12 12.15
1952.01 12.53
1952.02 12.36
1952.03 12.36
1952.04 12.24
1952.05 12.20
1952.06 12.45
1952.07 12.67
1952.08 12.68
1952.09 12.43
1952.10 12.13
1952.11 12.47
1952.12 12.93
1953.01 13.01
1953.02 12.86
1953.03 12.83
1953.04 12.16
1953.05 12.14
1953.06 11.62
1953.07 11.75
1953.08 11.72
1953.09 11.14
1953.10 11.39
1953.11 11.64
1953.12 11.75
1954.01 12.00
1954.02 12.22
1954.03 12.42
1954.04 12.91
1954.05 13.31
1954.06 13.36
1954.07 13.83
1954.08 14.04
1954.09 14.36
1954.10 14.62
1954.11 15.12
1954.12 15.79
1955.01 15.99
1955.02 16.44
1955.03 16.22
1955.04 16.69
1955.05 16.52
1955.06 17.37
1955.07 18.45
1955.08 18.22
1955.09 18.84
1955.10 17.77
1955.11 18.84
1955.12 18.94
1956.01 18.29
1956.02 18.27
1956.03 19.37
1956.04 19.37
1956.05 18.54
1956.06 18.16
1956.07 18.86
1956.08 18.67
1956.09 17.84
1956.10 17.42
1956.11 17.12
1956.12 17.20
1957.01 16.72
1957.02 15.84
1957.03 15.90
1957.04 16.12
1957.05 16.60
1957.06 16.73
1957.07 16.87
1957.08 15.87
1957.09 15.16
1957.10 14.15
1957.11 13.74
1957.12 13.67
1958.01 13.79
1958.02 13.78
1958.03 13.93
1958.04 13.91
1958.05 14.32
1958.06 14.64
1958.07 14.96
1958.08 15.54
1958.09 15.93
1958.10 16.56
1958.11 16.99
1958.12 17.36
1959.01 17.98
1959.02 17.76
1959.03 18.20
1959.04 18.43
1959.05 18.69
1959.06 18.45
1959.07 19.09
1959.08 18.96
1959.09 18.12
1959.10 18.02
1959.11 18.07
1959.12 18.62
1960.01 18.34
1960.02 17.55
1960.03 17.29
1960.04 17.43
1960.05 17.26
1960.06 17.82
1960.07 17.38
1960.08 17.58
1960.09 17.05
1960.10 16.61
1960.11 17.15
1960.12 17.56
1961.01 18.47
1961.02 19.23
1961.03 19.84
1961.04 20.38
1961.05 20.60
1961.06 20.33
1961.07 20.15
1961.08 20.94
1961.09 20.71
1961.10 20.92
1961.11 21.86
1961.12 22.04
1962.01 21.20
1962.02 21.45
1962.03 21.44
1962.04 20.66
1962.05 19.09
1962.06 16.83
1962.07 17.14
1962.08 17.57
1962.09 17.32
1962.10 16.74
1962.11 17.85
1962.12 18.59
1963.01 19.26
1963.02 19.47
1963.03 19.29
1963.04 20.15
1963.05 20.51
1963.06 20.38
1963.07 19.97
1963.08 20.47
1963.09 20.96
1963.10 20.89
1963.11 20.72
1963.12 21.04
1964.01 21.63
1964.02 21.83
1964.03 22.17
1964.04 22.42
1964.05 22.57
1964.06 22.30
1964.07 22.98
1964.08 22.65
1964.09 22.89
1964.10 23.21
1964.11 23.23
1964.12 22.75
1965.01 23.27
1965.02 23.37
1965.03 23.25
1965.04 23.42
1965.05 23.71
1965.06 22.39
1965.07 22.30
1965.08 22.67
1965.09 23.37
1965.10 23.78
1965.11 23.93
1965.12 23.69
1966.01 24.06
1966.02 23.70
1966.03 22.61
1966.04 23.11
1966.05 21.85
1966.06 21.56
1966.07 21.38
1966.08 19.91
1966.09 19.16
1966.10 18.83
1966.11 19.71
1966.12 19.74
1967.01 20.43
1967.02 21.07
1967.03 21.44
1967.04 21.69
1967.05 21.95
1967.06 21.55
1967.07 21.80
1967.08 22.03
1967.09 22.22
1967.10 22.07
1967.11 21.26
1967.12 21.75
1968.01 21.51
1968.02 20.42
1968.03 19.93
1968.04 21.28
1968.05 21.63
1968.06 22.00
1968.07 21.75
1968.08 21.14
1968.09 21.68
1968.10 22.00
1968.11 22.20
1968.12 22.28
1969.01 21.19
1969.02 20.90
1969.03 20.20
1969.04 20.43
1969.05 20.97
1969.06 19.71
1969.07 18.68
1969.08 18.43
1969.09 18.40
1969.10 18.45
1969.11 18.44
1969.12 17.33
1970.01 17.09
1970.02 16.37
1970.03 16.53
1970.04 15.87
1970.05 13.98
1970.06 13.80
1970.07 13.73
1970.08 14.10
1970.09 14.84
1970.10 15.06
1970.11 14.95
1970.12 15.87
1971.01 16.46
1971.02 17.03
1971.03 17.40
1971.04 17.92
1971.05 17.56
1971.06 17.08
1971.07 16.89
1971.08 16.52
1971.09 16.86
1971.10 16.43
1971.11 15.64
1971.12 16.60
1972.01 17.26
1972.02 17.46
1972.03 17.81
1972.04 17.92
1972.05 17.66
1972.06 17.64
1972.07 17.40
1972.08 17.94
1972.09 17.61
1972.10 17.53
1972.11 18.34
1972.12 18.65
1973.01 18.71
1973.02 17.89
1973.03 17.41
1973.04 16.94
1973.05 16.31
1973.06 15.81
1973.07 15.89
1973.08 15.28
1973.09 15.48
1973.10 15.91
1973.11 14.65
1973.12 13.49
1974.01 13.53
1974.02 12.96
1974.03 13.31
1974.04 12.55
1974.05 12.00
1974.06 11.89
1974.07 10.39
1974.08 9.82
1974.09 8.68
1974.10 8.74
1974.11 8.95
1974.12 8.29
1975.01 8.92
1975.02 9.76
1975.03 10.16
1975.04 10.23
1975.05 10.82
1975.06 11.01
1975.07 10.90
1975.08 10.09
1975.09 9.92
1975.10 10.33
1975.11 10.44
1975.12 10.25
1976.01 11.19
1976.02 11.59
1976.03 11.63
1976.04 11.69
1976.05 11.53
1976.06 11.54
1976.07 11.76
1976.08 11.60
1976.09 11.81
1976.10 11.35
1976.11 11.25
1976.12 11.60
1977.01 11.44
1977.02 11.01
1977.03 10.90
1977.04 10.64
1977.05 10.55
1977.06 10.53
1977.07 10.57
1977.08 10.27
1977.09 10.07
1977.10 9.77
1977.11 9.77
1977.12 9.68
1978.01 9.24
1978.02 9.05
1978.03 8.95
1978.04 9.26
1978.05 9.63
1978.06 9.55
1978.07 9.43
1978.08 10.02
1978.09 9.94
1978.10 9.53
1978.11 8.93
1978.12 9.01
1979.01 9.26
1979.02 9.00
1979.03 9.07
1979.04 9.13
1979.05 8.79
1979.06 8.85
1979.07 8.83
1979.08 9.13
1979.09 9.11
1979.10 8.68
1979.11 8.52
1979.12 8.75
1980.01 8.85
1980.02 9.05
1980.03 8.08
1980.04 7.84
1980.05 8.10
1980.06 8.51
1980.07 8.88
1980.08 9.07
1980.09 9.20
1980.10 9.36
1980.11 9.65
1980.12 9.39
1981.01 9.26
1981.02 8.83
1981.03 9.08
1981.04 9.09
1981.05 8.82
1981.06 8.77
1981.07 8.45
1981.08 8.40
1981.09 7.58
1981.10 7.65
1981.11 7.81
1981.12 7.83
1982.01 7.39
1982.02 7.18
1982.03 6.95
1982.04 7.26
1982.05 7.19
1982.06 6.69
1982.07 6.64
1982.08 6.64
1982.09 7.40
1982.10 8.00
1982.11 8.35
1982.12 8.47
1983.01 8.76
1983.02 8.91
1983.03 9.23
1983.04 9.53
1983.05 9.87
1983.06 10.00
1983.07 10.01
1983.08 9.73
1983.09 9.98
1983.10 10.00
1983.11 9.85
1983.12 9.82
1984.01 9.89
1984.02 9.32
1984.03 9.33
1984.04 9.31
1984.05 9.23
1984.06 9.01
1984.07 8.87
1984.08 9.62
1984.09 9.69
1984.10 9.60
1984.11 9.69
1984.12 9.60
1985.01 10.00
1985.02 10.49
1985.03 10.37
1985.04 10.40
1985.05 10.61
1985.06 10.81
1985.07 11.00
1985.08 10.74
1985.09 10.47
1985.10 10.55
1985.11 11.16
1985.12 11.69
1986.01 11.72
1986.02 12.39
1986.03 13.19
1986.04 13.55
1986.05 13.56
1986.06 13.89
1986.07 13.62
1986.08 13.89
1986.09 13.47
1986.10 13.43
1986.11 13.87
1986.12 14.09
1987.01 14.92
1987.02 15.82
1987.03 16.43
1987.04 16.20
1987.05 16.16
1987.06 16.83
1987.07 17.31
1987.08 18.33
1987.09 17.68
1987.10 15.53
1987.11 13.59
1987.12 13.39
1988.01 13.90
1988.02 14.30
1988.03 14.67
1988.04 14.43
1988.05 14.03
1988.06 14.77
1988.07 14.61
1988.08 14.24
1988.09 14.37
1988.10 14.81
1988.11 14.45
1988.12 14.70
1989.01 15.09
1989.02 15.47
1989.03 15.30
1989.04 15.69
1989.05 16.19
1989.06 16.64
1989.07 17.01
1989.08 17.73
1989.09 17.71
1989.10 17.64
1989.11 17.24
1989.12 17.65
1990.01 17.05
1990.02 16.51
1990.03 16.83
1990.04 16.81
1990.05 17.39
1990.06 17.82
1990.07 17.75
1990.08 16.17
1990.09 15.30
1990.10 14.82
1990.11 15.19
1990.12 15.85
1991.01 15.61
1991.02 17.35
1991.03 17.82
1991.04 18.16
1991.05 18.04
1991.06 18.02
1991.07 18.10
1991.08 18.51
1991.09 18.36
1991.10 18.35
1991.11 18.29
1991.12 18.44
1992.01 19.77
1992.02 19.58
1992.03 19.28
1992.04 19.30
1992.05 19.66
1992.06 19.32
1992.07 19.62
1992.08 19.72
1992.09 19.71
1992.10 19.37
1992.11 19.83
1992.12 20.45
1993.01 20.32
1993.02 20.55
1993.03 20.86
1993.04 20.46
1993.05 20.52
1993.06 20.61
1993.07 20.57
1993.08 20.81
1993.09 20.99
1993.10 21.11
1993.11 21.04
1993.12 21.17
1994.01 21.41
1994.02 21.26
1994.03 20.83
1994.04 20.06
1994.05 20.20
1994.06 20.29
1994.07 20.07
1994.08 20.54
1994.09 20.58
1994.10 20.40
1994.11 20.21
1994.12 19.91
1995.01 20.22
1995.02 20.80
1995.03 21.15
1995.04 21.64
1995.05 22.20
1995.06 22.72
1995.07 23.38
1995.08 23.28
1995.09 23.95
1995.10 23.93
1995.11 24.35
1995.12 25.03
1996.01 24.76
1996.02 25.98
1996.03 25.63
1996.04 25.43
1996.05 25.81
1996.06 25.97
1996.07 24.86
1996.08 25.41
1996.09 25.68
1996.10 26.48
1996.11 27.59
1996.12 27.72
1997.01 28.33
1997.02 29.27
1997.03 28.80
1997.04 27.59
1997.05 29.93
1997.06 31.26
1997.07 32.77
1997.08 32.59
1997.09 32.67
1997.10 32.90
1997.11 32.34
1997.12 33.03
1998.01 32.86
1998.02 34.71
1998.03 36.30
1998.04 37.28
1998.05 36.96
1998.06 36.80
1998.07 38.26
1998.08 35.42
1998.09 33.53
1998.10 33.77
1998.11 37.37
1998.12 38.82
1999.01 40.58
1999.02 40.40
1999.03 41.36
1999.04 42.71
1999.05 42.56
1999.06 42.18
1999.07 43.83
1999.08 41.93
1999.09 41.32
1999.10 40.55
1999.11 43.21
1999.12 44.20
2000.01 43.77
2000.02 42.19
2000.03 43.22
2000.04 43.53
2000.05 41.97
2000.06 42.78
2000.07 42.76
2000.08 42.87
2000.09 41.90
2000.10 39.37
2000.11 38.78
2000.12 37.28
2001.01 36.98
2001.02 35.84
2001.03 32.33
2001.04 32.17
2001.05 34.08
2001.06 33.07
2001.07 32.16
2001.08 31.40
2001.09 27.67
2001.10 28.58
2001.11 30.01
2001.12 30.50
2002.01 30.28
2002.02 29.09
2002.03 30.29
2002.04 29.01
2002.05 28.13
2002.06 26.39
2002.07 23.46
2002.08 23.59
2002.09 22.36
2002.10 21.95
2002.11 23.34
2002.12 23.10
2003.01 22.89
2003.02 21.21
2003.03 21.31
2003.04 22.42
2003.05 23.59
2003.06 24.83
2003.07 24.86
2003.08 24.64
2003.09 25.24
2003.10 25.68
2003.11 25.94
2003.12 26.63
2004.01 27.65
2004.02 27.65
2004.03 26.88
2004.04 26.90
2004.05 25.90
2004.06 26.40
2004.07 25.69
2004.08 25.17
2004.09 25.66
2004.10 25.41
2004.11 26.46
2004.12 27.14
2005.01 26.58
2005.02 26.74
2005.03 26.33
2005.04 25.40
2005.05 25.64
2005.06 26.06
2005.07 26.28
2005.08 26.10
2005.09 25.72
2005.10 24.87
2005.11 25.92
2005.12 26.43
2006.01 26.46
2006.02 26.24
2006.03 26.32
2006.04 26.14
2006.05 25.64
2006.06 24.74
2006.07 24.69
2006.08 25.04
2006.09 25.63
2006.10 26.53
2006.11 26.92
2006.12 27.27
2007.01 27.20
2007.02 27.31
2007.03 26.22
2007.04 26.97
2007.05 27.54
2007.06 27.41
2007.07 27.40
2007.08 26.14
2007.09 26.72
2007.10 27.31
2007.11 25.72
2007.12 25.95
2008.01 24.01
2008.02 23.49
2008.03 22.60
2008.04 23.35
2008.05 23.68
2008.06 22.38
2008.07 20.74
2008.08 20.89
2008.09 16.25
source:www.irrationalexuberan.../
Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Good article, at the bare minimum we are definitely past half way and possibly very near the end. It can't get a lot worse (unless the US needs an IMF bailout!)Unfortunately i'm 100% invested, so I don't have any choice but to go along for the ride!
I'm down 30% in US, 15% in pacific pesos (Aussie Dollars). The wife is not happy!
Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
What is the source/methodology behind the “consensus operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 earnings” of $104? Is operating earnings the best figure to use? Is $104 a reasonable estimate?FYI:
Data available at Robert Schiller’s web-site shows approximately $60 in trailing actual earnings.
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data...
Standard & Poors shows: $69 in actual trailing 4 qtr. (9/07-6/08) operating earnings, a $68 forecast for 2009 “top-down” operating earnings, and $104 for 2009 “bottoms-up” estimates.
www2.standardandpoors....
Given that actual earnings over the last 4-quarters are somewhere between $60 and $69, it seems to me that the $68 estimate is much more reasonable then the $104 estimate.
FYI, Schiller likes to use the trailing ten-year earnings when he calculates the S&P 500’s PE. Trailing ten-year S&P 500 earnings are near $60, putting the S&P 500 PE at ~ 16. This puts today’s PE near the average PE over the previous 130 years.
I highly suggest reading Schiller’s “Irrational exuberance”, and using the data found at:
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data... Reply
llsouth.net
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Bravely forging ahead!My long watched Watchlist stocks are at such bargain prices!!
Just buying smaller volumes & keeping cash to buy more if downdraft continues.
No gutts no glory I need some GLORY!!! Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Please just remember that if going long, you have decided on your exit strategy from the start. One that hopefully has some sophistication behind it that can constantly be adjusting to the stock's behavior and overall market conditions. One that can help you keep losses to a minimum but allow profits to accumulate. ALWAYS stay protected! ReplyAnonymous
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
I simply LOVE fear, panic & emotions. They create value and cause investors to make irrational decisions about their investments. As they bail out of their positions I'm more than happy to navigate the wreckage to see what I can find.Now, that's not to advocate that investors should pile into positions as soon as markets drop; everyone needs to do their own DD. But as extreme exuberance pushes the market upwards both fear & panic push it in the opposite direction.
As a long-term investor who focuses on dividends, cashflow and accumulating investments I can't help but rub my hands together at the opportunties that are just beginining to present themselves. Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Yesterday was not "climactic" or "capitulation.&qu... The volume was too light, and the market came back during the day. If the volume had been horrific and the market was falling at closing (the 800 points or more), then you could call it capitulation. This market has not yet reached is "climax" on the down side. ReplyCorporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
you guys are both wacko's , LQD will be a good investment for savvy investors buying on the cheap ! Every class of bonds has out-performed gold since it peaked in the 70's at 800 an ounce . ReplyCorporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
I didn't say that owning gold or any other commodity is a bad thing, I'm just reminding you of what you know already: Nothing is certain except death and taxes :)Gold might someday be completely regulated by the government as it was in the past. In that sense, it is not safe.
But safety is a relative thing and one man's mattress is another man's unlocked door.
You might find it interesting to read William Jennings Bryan's Cross of Gold speech which you can find on the internet. Reply
Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
carey_jim, if you don't believe in gold, I can't imagine what you own. A lifetime supply of canned food? It doesn't keep that long. A gun? Me too. It might help me survive someday, but it mightn't be enough. Land? They can take it as surely as the right to short doomed banks. I have absolute faith that my gold will always be worth something. I can't say that about anything else. ReplyCorporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
Gold is not a safe asset.Nothing is. Reply
Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
OldLimey - here is how you value a bank, ignoring the doom-mongering and short term headlines.First just look at the total assets line. In normal times, the bank is going to earn 1% on that figure, net of its funding costs and operating expensives. Bloated European banks with high expenses, you can give that a 0.25% haircut. The best run low expense US banks, a 0.25% bonus if you like, or not (that means US Bancorp and Wells Fargo and nobody else, pretty much). Now you know exactly what the bank will earn in the future, after all this passes. Ignore the fact that those earnings will then grow year after year in line with the economy, that is your safety margin. You don't need to pay a dime for it.
Next you have to figure out how much the current shareholders will own of that future earning stream. The way to do that is to assume the bank will deleverage until its equity capital is a tenth of the liabilities line. Take its current book value, remove all intangibles and goodwill, and any writeoffs already announced since the last sheet, to get a current tangible. The difference between the 1/10th leverage line and the current tangible is the amount the existing shareholders will end up being diluted, more or less. Whether by debt ahead of them, or preferred ahead of them, or net new stock issuance, or asset sales, whatever.
Now you know what portion of what future earnings you will own as a present shareholder. Put a low cap rate on it, 10 times earnings say. And you are done.
Will this be right for every bank? No, but it will be about right for the big ones and the others will break randomly around it. It is so conservative for normal times the winners will cover a multitude of sins among the losers.
Simple, direct, businesslike, and rational. No fear, no doom mongering, no speculation. Everything else is just short term noise, some of which will break for you and some against.
Now you have your answer. Will you accept it? I doubt it. But it is substantially correct, whether you like it or not. Reply
Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
Folks, the only safe asset is gold. That was true last month, last year, and last century. Yes, these bonds are cheap given their relatively strong credit backing. But the chickens of the Fed's ultra-low interest rates are coming home to roost: LQD is yielding less than 6%. That's not a bad return in this market, but it's only 500bp better than cash and not even 200bp better than FDIC-insured CDs. In other words, the yield, such as it is, is not much in absolute terms. And even if one supposes that dollar debasement will cost only the "official" 3-4% per year, it's basically nothing. Under the circumstances, the after-tax, after-debasement real return on these instruments is, charitably, no more than 1%. Anyone else think 1% of those issuers might end up in default in the next year?Bottom line: we're not being paid to take the risk at these yields. You want safe, stick with gold. You want to take risks, be sure you're getting paid for doing so. Reply
Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
The problem is that corporate capitalism (including the banking and financial system) is not adequately overseen by us, the American people, through our two legislative bodies in the Congress which have been purchased by corporate money and manipulated by Washington "insiders" and lobbyists.Ralph Nader, Dennis Kucinich, Ron Paul and others have been giving us possible solutions for these problems for a long time.
The present hysteria and comparison of today's financial crisis with 1929 is a simple attempt to suppress a rational discussion of the problems in Congress, a discussion that reflects the opinion and interests of all the people.
The hysteria promoted by the Bush "Republican" executive branch over the present financial crisis is similar to the hysteria promoted by the executive branch over the Iraq War Resolution and caused it to be rubber stamped by Congress.
Most of the disasters of the 20th century could have been prevented by a little common sense: World War I and II are among them.
Why not give reason a chance this time instead of acquiescing to an all powerful executive branch?
Also, we should remember that the New Deal did not bring back the prosperity of the 1920's but instead preserved America from a socialist revolution by giving the poor just enough bread to prevent it.
In addition, the New Deal gave Franklin Roosevelt more power than any executive had ever had before him which allowed him to win an unprecedented four presidential terms. If he had lived through his fourth term he would have served for 16 years as president.
The present "socialistic"... proposals will do the same. They will give the executive branch even more power while persevering the financial system as it is, complete with its massive injustices, inequalities and hypocrisy, and take away the chance for the American people, through Congress, to change the financial system into something more equitable and economically responsive to their needs.
Reply
Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
dlr has it dead right. Every other day somebody comes onto SA touting 'value' in this or that bank. Like a broken record, I ask each time what their secret is - how they manage to calculate value on a bank BS (pun intended). Still waiting for an answer. Reply