Yield, Value, Safety: Still Available With Selected Utilities [View article]
In my opinion, this heralds the end of cheap electricity, signals the continuing decline of domestic coal power, heralds large capex requirements for utilities, and will wreak havoc on the economy.
http://bit.ly/JPnsLu and http://fxn.ws/KJGgXJ : "Last week PJM Interconnection, the company that operates the electric grid for 13 states (Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia) held its 2015 capacity auction. These are the first real, market prices that take Obama’s most recent anti-coal regulations into account, and they prove that he is keeping his 2008 campaign promise to make electricity prices “necessarily skyrocket.”
The market-clearing price for new 2015 capacity – almost all natural gas – was $136 per megawatt. That’s eight times higher than the price for 2012, which was just $16 per megawatt. In the mid-Atlantic area covering New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and DC the new price is $167 per megawatt. For the northern Ohio territory served by FirstEnergy, the price is a shocking $357 per megawatt.
Why the massive price increases? Andy Ott from PJM stated the obvious: “Capacity prices were higher than last year's because of retirements of existing coal-fired generation resulting largely from environmental regulations which go into effect in 2015.” Northern Ohio is suffering from more forced coal-plant retirements than the rest of the region, hence the even higher price.
Arcos Dorados: A Golden Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
wall, this scares me a bit, but I always want to read more. Not being a finance pro, I'm seeing ARCO debt about 1/7 of revenue. Why is that specifically a worry in this case? Am I concentrating on the wrong ratio, debt/revenue @1/7x, as opposed to debt/income @5x?
Putting aside the separate issue of consumer spending growth prospects of South Am.
Alcatel-Lucent: Time To Buy Or Flee? [View article]
I do like the fact that ALU has a meaningful presence in edge routers, so getting into core is a reasonable move. As opposed to introducing a line of edge and core routers that have no market share.
Using that article's data, we see a $4B core market and a 24% share in edge. If ALU can capture the same 1/4 of the core, we're looking at $1B in revenue. On their current $20B, that's pretty small and can be more than offset by shrinkage elsewhere.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
Paulo, what is the longer term catalyst for coal prices in light of the large decline in coal-fired elec generation from enviro regs mentioned in this piece? That is, if we define the short term catalyst as a bounce from a bottom and a long term catalyst as a sustainable rise in demand.
Alcatel-Lucent: Time To Buy Or Flee? [View article]
Their recently announced patent licensing scheme will raise some revenue, but seems to indicate the end is closer than not. Save for the unit sale last quarter, they're operating in the red. Their position in North Am. is weak. Either $0 or $10 yes, but $0 looks more likely imo. Rough go, sad to see.
MSS cellular spectrum may not come available until 2016, if ever. But it's another piece of the puzzle which indicates CLWR's spectrum holdings aren't as valuable as proponents think.
I'm still looking for a 75c share price later this year after a raise before jumping in.
It's 1998 And You're Handed $100K To Invest [View article]
> America's accelerating debt and expanding federal bureaucracy are > bad for investors
I beat the drum on this constantly. Forgetting taxes, the regulatory and legal climate in this country are openly hostile to business. There's simply no way for business vitality to exist here long term.
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
David, yes, thanks for the article. I had received strong advice to buy STO last year and didn't. Hence my interest in the article.
Using the medians of the oil discoveries in your article and head calcs, we're at ~1.75B boe to their reserves. The data I linked (from early 2011) shows 5B reserves and 675M yearly production (chart 2). So another 1.75B represents 3 years of production. In chart 3, that puts STO right up into the very enticing category.
^^ The above is what I should have done before posting the first time. Apologies.
IPO Preview: GasLog [View article]
Yield, Value, Safety: Still Available With Selected Utilities [View article]
http://bit.ly/JPnsLu and http://fxn.ws/KJGgXJ :
"Last week PJM Interconnection, the company that operates the electric grid for 13 states (Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia) held its 2015 capacity auction. These are the first real, market prices that take Obama’s most recent anti-coal regulations into account, and they prove that he is keeping his 2008 campaign promise to make electricity prices “necessarily skyrocket.”
The market-clearing price for new 2015 capacity – almost all natural gas – was $136 per megawatt. That’s eight times higher than the price for 2012, which was just $16 per megawatt. In the mid-Atlantic area covering New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and DC the new price is $167 per megawatt. For the northern Ohio territory served by FirstEnergy, the price is a shocking $357 per megawatt.
Why the massive price increases? Andy Ott from PJM stated the obvious: “Capacity prices were higher than last year's because of retirements of existing coal-fired generation resulting largely from environmental regulations which go into effect in 2015.” Northern Ohio is suffering from more forced coal-plant retirements than the rest of the region, hence the even higher price.
Nokia: Watch The Bonds For Signs Of Life [View article]
> the truth,
No, but it's widely believed and probably true that the smartest money is in the bond market.
Arcos Dorados: A Golden Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
Putting aside the separate issue of consumer spending growth prospects of South Am.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
Alcatel-Lucent: Time To Buy Or Flee? [View article]
More detail on the router.
Alcatel-Lucent: Time To Buy Or Flee? [View article]
Using that article's data, we see a $4B core market and a 24% share in edge. If ALU can capture the same 1/4 of the core, we're looking at $1B in revenue. On their current $20B, that's pretty small and can be more than offset by shrinkage elsewhere.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
http://fxn.ws/KJGgXJ
Alcatel-Lucent: Time To Buy Or Flee? [View article]
It takes stories like this to capture both investor and adviser interest. Another wrinkle.
Alcatel-Lucent: Time To Buy Or Flee? [View article]
Morgan Stanley's $2.4 Billion Facebook Short [View article]
Investigating The May Sell-Off In Clearwire: Who Or What Is Responsible? [View article]
MSS cellular spectrum may not come available until 2016, if ever. But it's another piece of the puzzle which indicates CLWR's spectrum holdings aren't as valuable as proponents think.
I'm still looking for a 75c share price later this year after a raise before jumping in.
It's 1998 And You're Handed $100K To Invest [View article]
> bad for investors
I beat the drum on this constantly. Forgetting taxes, the regulatory and legal climate in this country are openly hostile to business. There's simply no way for business vitality to exist here long term.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
Exports are about 10% of the domestic market. That said, a world coal price decline would have some effect on domestic prices.
Statoil May Be One Of The Better Places To Put Your Money [View article]
Using the medians of the oil discoveries in your article and head calcs, we're at ~1.75B boe to their reserves. The data I linked (from early 2011) shows 5B reserves and 675M yearly production (chart 2). So another 1.75B represents 3 years of production. In chart 3, that puts STO right up into the very enticing category.
^^ The above is what I should have done before posting the first time. Apologies.