Loading...
Symbols:
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Transcripts
- Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. F3Q08 (Quarter End 09/05/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- General Electric Company Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- DragonWave Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Emmis Communications Corporation F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Audiovox Corporation F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Robbins & Myers, Inc. F4Q08 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Total System Services, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Tortoise Capital Resources F3Q08 (Qtr End 08/31/2008) Earnings Call Transcript
- Intraware, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- LTX-Credence Corporation Business Update Call Transcript
-
Editor's Picks
-
Most Popular
- Will IBM Face Sector Challenges in the Fourth Quarter?
- 95 Stocks with Low Debt to Equity
- Why Did Bernanke Play Along?
- PIC: Market Rewards Insurers That Avoided Risk
- Venture Debt Firms: Crunch Time and Opportunity
- Exxon Mobil Appears at Lower End of Valuation Range
- Full list of Editor's Picks »
- Cramer Should Be Suspended »
- This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force »
- Bulls Take a Stand - Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/10/08) »
- Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases »
- Sirius Shares Priced Like Stamps »
- Back Room Deal? - Cramer's Mad Money (10/10/08) »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
- Prefer a Yield - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/10/08) »
- 5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling »
- Largest Bond ETF Now Trading At a Massive Discount »
- 60% of Google Employee Stock Options Are Drowning »
Trading Center
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Blair
25 Comments
The Bottom's Within Sight - Barron's
What you are seeing is a reversal of a mindset that started in the 1960s, specifically, with regard to responsibilities. That all of the great things in life are free. Houses, SUVs, great vacations, etc. One will never have to pay for them - housing prices will go up forever and you can always get another equity loan, for example.
From a generational consideration, the baby boomers had children, and these children accepted (why not?) what their parents had told them. So that brings us up to the 1980s. Now those second generation children are having children, who were told that they too could have the great life style. Etc.
So, what is going one is a revision to the real economic world.
To beat the horse real dead, what needs to be cleaned up are two (if not more marginally) generations of a mindset.
I think that this picture now gives an investment forecast. For the indefinite future, the name of the game will be more conservative investments, if for no other reason there isn't any easy money around.
To talk about myself, I am 76 years old, still an active (not trader) investor since 1963. I am down about 10%, but still have some open equity investments since year end.
The market and the economy will do well, but it will be a long haul -- and the tax burdens proposed by the Democrats will make things worse. The best thing long term are the tax proposals put forward by McCain -- not that the economy and market will pop up. All one has to do is to look at the European economies to understand what will happen if the Democrats run our country.
All of the young college people are ignorant of what is going on in Europe, where the unemployment rate for college graduates is on the order of 20%.
While I am ranting, regarding health insurance, etc. Canada, France and Germany are going to a more free market system because they are running out of money. Of course, promoters of the US getting into a government based medical plan have politics in mind, not what would be the best for the American public as a whole.
Nouriel Roubini Predicts (Surprise!) a Long Recession
If the environment was not supportive of Roubini's forecasts, then he would be just another voice in the woods and no one would be listening to him.
If Roubini is making money on the present situation, the more power to him.
This Bear Market is Worse Than I Thought
This area is interesting because it represents the 2002 bear market low for the major indices: Dow, S&P 500 and QQQ.
So, my assessment is that this area represents a 'clean up' price area based only on the S&P 500. Sad to say, the next down count projects to a level I don't even want to think about. Likewise, the QQQ appears to be in a support area (count and 2002 bear market low).
Regarding the Dow, here the next level down from the 2002 low is in the 4,000 area. There is no obvious pick point, however.
It's Too Late To Sell Stocks, Just Wait
I suggest that an investor open a margin account when and only when the investor has lived through a complete market cycle.
Back to the Great Depression Debates Again
Believe that, and you can easily be convinced that the Brooklyn Bridge is an excellent buy.
3 Essential Books for Financial Crises
Book Review: 'The Aggressive Conservative Investor' by Martin Whitman
In a bear market, such as we have right now, it is impossible to know when you have 'good value.'
For example, consider Citigroup (C).
Except for the 2002 bear market when C traded down to $25, C traded in the $45-50 range.
So, from a value point of view, one would think that when C again traded at $25, it would be a good value buy.
Well, before last week's rally, C traded down to $15. In other words, a 40% hit. Even with the rally, C is still down 20%.
The point to be made is that value investing has its place in a 'reasonable' market environment. When you are in a bear market, you want to do technical market investing.
By the way, some months ago I recall reading in the Wall Street Journal that the brokerage firms were laying off technicians because they were not needed -- they were just overhead.
Obama vs. McCain: Who's Better for Dividend Investors?
Let us assume that you get $10,000 worth of dividends that are subject to taxes.
At present, you would pay $1,500 in taxes.
The so called modest tax increase to 20% would mean that you would pay $2,000 in dividend related taxes.
By any math, this would represent 100*(2,000 -1,500)/1,500 = 33% tax increase. From my point of view, a 33% increase in taxes is not modest in any stretch of imagination.
Stoyanov's political thinking is inconsistent with financial thinking. It appears that Stoyanov doesn't know when he is well off.
I will vote for McCain.
Will McCain's Vice Presidential Selection Help the Markets?
It doesn't have any optimal choice -- Lincoln would not be eligible to become president because he is not a native born.
With all of the names mentioned in the article, one is lead to believe that Rothbort is just trying to say that he picked McCain's VP choice.
Not much credibility here.
Real Estate Bubble Is Only in 4 States: CA, FL, NV, AZ
My argument is that the floor expectation prices are too high.
Here is my rational:
There is a lot of buying at today's prices by those that saw the bubble and put money aside to take advantage of the expected drop in prices.
However, these buyers do not have an unlimited amount of capital to buy all of those foreclosed properties. Therefore, we can expect another down-leg in housing prices.
Okay, where does the money come from to buy on the next down-leg? The answer is: those that are saving up to buy a house.
So, here is the catch regarding house prices. Try saving money to put, say 20% down. The interest rates available for longer term CDs is, say 3%. You get 3% on your savings. You have to pay taxes on the interest, which knocks the effect rate to 2 1/2%.
But there is more. The inflation rate is over 3%.
This translates to, effectively, a saver is not saving anything!
To make up the necessary cash to purchase and support a house means that the prices are going to really drop more because the next go-around buyers don't have enough money to support the houses at today's foreclose prices.
How much more of a drop???
Guess, BIG guess. 25%
Gold's Divergence Between the Paper and Physical Markets
A 33% retrenchment calculates to roughly $780, which again should be a support area.
One will know where gold bases out with hindsight. By the way, these estimates are based on London gold prices.
Some of the discussions are interesting. My surmise is that many leveraged gold buyers are being faced with margin calls, and consequently are dumping or being required to raise cash through selling assets that have held up in this recent bear market.
Apple Investors Need to Get a Grip
Reason?
If Obama gets elected, then there will be a massive sell off of long term holdings because the capital gains taxes will go up nearly 100%.
Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism?
Which stocks are going to be the principal 'droppers' that will cause the above forecast to come true implies those stocks that have not been hit too hard so far.
If the above assumption is correct, the financial stocks will bottom out price wise in the recent levels.
The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook
There is **no** reason to bottom fish these days. When the market turns around, it is not going to blow up because there is so much supply, both stocks and bonds, that these holders of those assets are more than happy to sell on any pop.
Remember, the time ratio of bull to bear markets is roughly 3:1. You'll have more than enough time to make good, in a better risk environment, money.
The Current Bear Market: Death by a Thousand Cuts
If you do a bearish point and figure count for the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the all count down to the 2002-03 low. Of course, once (and if) the market does go down to that level, one can ask whether there is more to come.
The whole profound change in the availability of easy to get and low interest credit is the big issue. Just because the fed rates are low, it doesn't mean that one can borrow money without trouble.
The whole credit market doesn't make any sense. It is desired to get the housing market off of the floor. However, with the low interest rates that a retail customer can get, which doesn't even cover inflation let alone taxes, means that it will be very difficult to get new retail buyers into buying the homes -- unless the prices drop to unimaginable low prices.